Posted on 09/27/2006 8:45:45 AM PDT by MNJohnnie
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1708787/posts
Declassified Key Judgements from the April 2006 NIE Director of National Intellegence ^ | 09-26-06 | DNI
NOTE: The link is receiving many hits and is only available intermittently. This conversion from PDF to HTML is courtesy of PRND21 in #11. AM
Declassified Key Judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate .Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States. dated April 2006
Key Judgments
United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al- Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.
• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.
• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.
• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida, could erode support for the jihadists. We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti- American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.
• We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the Homeland.
• The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking Western interests. Extremist networks inside the extensive Muslim diasporas in Europe facilitate recruitment and staging for urban attacks, as illustrated by the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.
We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.
• The Iraq conflict has become the .cause celebre. for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight. We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.
• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq .jihad;. (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims.all of which jihadists exploit. Concomitant vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged that, if fully exposed and exploited, could begin to slow the spread of the movement. They include dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related conflicts, the limited appeal of the jihadists. radical ideology, the emergence of respected voices of moderation, and criticism of the violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim citizens. •
The jihadists. greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution.an ultra-conservative interpretation of shari.a-based governance spanning the Muslim world.is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists. propaganda would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade.
• Recent condemnations of violence and extremist religious interpretations by a few notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that could facilitate the growth of a constructive alternative to jihadist ideology: peaceful political activism. This also could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of broader Muslim communities in rejecting violence, reducing the ability of radicals to capitalize on passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror.
• Countering the spread of the jihadist movement will require coordinated multilateral efforts that go well beyond operations to capture or kill terrorist leaders. If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit.
Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role.
• The loss of key leaders, particularly Usama Bin Ladin, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller groups. Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the mission, the loss of these key leaders would exacerbate strains and disagreements. We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qa.ida.
• Should al-Zarqawi continue to evade capture and scale back attacks against Muslims, we assess he could broaden his popular appeal and present a global threat.
• The increased role of Iraqis in managing the operations of al-Qa.ida in Iraq might lead veteran foreign jihadists to focus their efforts on external operations. Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al- Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.
• We assess that such groups pose less of a danger to the Homeland than does al- Qa.ida but will pose varying degrees of threat to our allies and to US interests abroad. The focus of their attacks is likely to ebb and flow between local regime targets and regional or global ones. We judge that most jihadist groups.both well-known and newly formed.will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks focused primarily on soft targets to implement their asymmetric warfare strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist attacks in urban environments. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics.
• CBRN capabilities will continue to be sought by jihadist groups. While Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, remain the most active state sponsors of terrorism, many other states will be unable to prevent territory or resources from being exploited by terrorists.
Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.
• We judge that groups of all stripes will increasingly use the Internet to communicate, propagandize, recruit, train, and obtain logistical and financial support.
what if it happens
Got your Sunshine RIGHT HERE, pal!
http://www.tim-morris.com/images/funny/pictures/homer_kiss_my_ass-t.jpg
I don't play well with "what if's"....What if the sky falls tomorrow....what if's are for DUmmie pollsters.
uh huh thought so i bet everything i own that if Mccain was to get it you would vote for him
Yes if I'm so wrong that's it's beyond all possible humor, I'd like things I said to be proved wrong with links and cited materials that stand up to objective unbiased scrutiny. I am so sick and tired of people telling me I'm wrong and not providing evidence and pointing out something I said that was wrong, and then illustrating how it is wrong. That's SUPER high up on my list of pet peeves. If someone says something I think is wrong, and I have no knowlege to back it up, I keep my OPINION to myself.
The entire gaggle, about a dozen, were on the side of the road just milling about. I pass by and suddenly one dashes out to get to the other side. YIKES!
You'd lose that wager...I don't vote for DUmocrats, even if they do have an "R" next to their name.
Why don't you take a breath and read post #703. I asked if this is what you want me to read. You are out of control.
If this is indeed a link to the book, I will read it.
LoL!
Ouch! The last thing I want to do is run over one of God's defenseless little creatures!
Why call him Yankee Johnnie? Isn't all that matters is the fact that he's a strong conservative and supports the national Republican conservative agenda? As a life time southerner I'm ashamed by the South's part in the Civil War and their position, and cringe whenever I see a Confederate flag. I love my State, and I love Texas deeply, but I'm ashamed and extremely disappointed by what the South used to stand for and defend. You are assigning 140 year old prejudice to MNJohnnie just because he doesn't quite see eye to you on a 140 year old issue. He's no "Yankee" in the way you mean it. He's a conservative Republican American. Period. Please keep in mind while discussing this that you're talking to a fellow conservative that loves this country and the Constitution. Not some DU liberal troll.
Your View on Mccain is my view on Rudy you proved my point if Rudy gets it i'll vote third party as for 2006 the Gop is going to keep both Houses
Stonewall, this is the never ending debate. I have too many FRiends here to alienate them with it!
I stick up for the South, but I have no intention of refighting the War of Northern Aggression!
ok my friend William Rawle wrote a called A View of the Constitution that book cleary says that Secession is right and it is Consitituional Rawle was a Yankee from the North his book was used at west point
I don't cringe when I see a Confederate Flag itself, I cringe at the yahoo's who wave it proudly saying they're better than everyone else. That's worse than white northeastern elitist liberals mocking everyone else, including blacks.
Ouch is right. I was shaking.
I have no disagreements there...McLoon/Rudy cannot be compared though. Rudy supports Bush 100%, and McLame only says he does.
Um, as Lincoln was Presidnet of the United States, and Commander in Chief, what Constitutional authority did ANYONE IN THE SOUTH have to deny Lincoln the Executive Branch authority as Commander in Chief??? I don't care what perceived agreement they thought there was, they don't have the right to deny Lincoln the Executive powers granted him by the Constitution, just because of their addiction to slavery. This is another instance of the Confederates ignoring the Constitution and defying its distribution of powers just because they don't like the result. TOO BAD! This is not right. The Constitution says what it says, and the South didn't like that, so just like today, the Democrats of the South interpreted it in such a way as worked for their slave owning agenda. Am I no longer a conservative because I concentrate my opinion on the Civil War to the fact that slavery is wrong, the Confederates supported slavery, the Union opposed it, and the south was on the wrong side of a losing fight. That's the simple bottom line of this. I don't know how anyone can argue with that. Every objective historian I have EVER heard speak on the Civil War has always established that the South fired the first shots in the war at Fort Sumpter. That's an act of sedition and treason and violated the Constitution at its core. I don't understand how anyone can argue with that.
So you would rather them trash great people like Lee and Jackson and your family who fought for there homes and there family's?
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