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To: DBrow
First this chart (based on Vostok ice core data):

The current interglacial is the blue zone starting about 10,000 years BP. It's fairly obvious from this chart that the interglacial temperature pattern was "spikier" in the previous interglacials than the current one. (And if this data is believed, then it appears that the peak temperatures of previous interglacials were somewhat higher than present, so I don't know if Hansen is taking a more global view. This is, after all, ultimately representative primarily of Antarctic temperatures with an overlying global pattern).

Anyway, go to this article:

Milankovitch cycles

and read the "Present Conditions" section. If you're really intrigued, you may want to try and get the Berger and Loutre paper, reference 8. This was an important paper and I wish it was available for free online, but I can't find it anywhere.

39 posted on 09/26/2006 11:17:50 AM PDT by cogitator
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To: cogitator
I don't see quite the same thing in the temperature portion of the chart. The initial slope of the last interglacial is smoother than the initial slope of the current one. The two previous ones were similar in initial slope but did not seem to last as long as the last one. Three interglacials ago has the same spikes on the rising slope as this one did.

As for this one, it seems like the initial phase has lasted longer than the last one as it has not flattened out- it's still changing, while last time by now it had stabilized.

I'll look for the paper, it sounds interesting.

If I were to take a WAG it does look like this interglacial will be longer than the last based on what it's done so far, but there's no way to predict (and probably no way to carry a prediction forward by 20,000 years!)

Thanks for good info, cogitator.
43 posted on 09/26/2006 11:41:43 AM PDT by DBrow
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