Wait a second: that's the first time I've seen a polling result in this race! Who did the poll and when?
Robert Novak wrote a piece about House races. Looking closer at the table though, the number was not the margin but the district. Novak showed the race 'Likely Democratic Contention' but listed it as in play. I would guess that would mean Novak thinks it is about a 10 point race, but he did not disclose any numbers. See link