What controls the price of crude, and has done for years, is the worldwide excess daily production capacity, as measured in bbl-equivalents. This past January, this figure fell to 0.65 MM bbl/day, down over 6 MM bbl/day from 4 years earlier. That's not enough of a cushion for ANY decent-sized supply interruption, and demand was therefore pushed sharply forward, as numerous large users felt they had to insure supply for the medium term. Result? Prices went bazoo.
The daily excess cap figure has rebounded somewhat, to about 1.72-1.76 MM bbl/day. Prices have accordingly relaxed considerably, and will do so further if the excap figure continues to rise (which yr hmbl srvnt believes it will do, slowly).
Interesting sidebar to this. With on-hand supplies of crude being well more than ample, any production cut will have -- after the inevitable Nervous Nellie spike by the Chicken Littles of the world -- the net effect of lowering crude prices worldwide. Why? Because the crude is still there, still available, and will be counted as part of the excap figure.
Let OPEC cut (notionally, of course; their use of 'cut' is rather like Xlinton's use of 'is') 1 MM bbl/day. 90 days hence, with excap at 2.7 MM bbl/day or thereabouts, crude will be $5-$8 lower.
What source are you using for the worldwide excess daily production capacity? I'm not doubting your figures, just looking for another source of information.