From KVOA
http://www.kvoa.com/Global/story.asp?S=5449927
It's set to be one of the most watched races in the November elections and it's rooted right here in Southern Arizona. It's a race guaranteed to capture the eyes of the nation.
News 4 has partnered with the Arizona Daily Star to conduct a tracking poll in which we asked likely voters a number of questions related to the Congressional District 8 race and the candidates.
600 likely voters in Arizona Congressional District 8 took part in a survey, which was conducted from September 16 - 19, 2006 by 1 to 1 Direct and Marketing Intelligence.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
Giffords' lead is outside of the margin of error; Graf would have to capture nearly all of the undecided vote to catch up.
Giffords is particularly strong with female voters, leading by a greater than 2-to-1 ratio. Graf leads among males.
Giffords has more effectively held on to her party base and is well ahead among independent voters.
Graf polls relatively better with younger voters, Giffords with older.
Giffords has captured almost all voters who "usually" or "almost always" vote for a Democrat, and is well ahead with those who do not normally support one party over the other. Graf is strong with those who "almost always" vote Republican, but it not completely dominant among those who "usually" vote for a Republican candidate.
Graf does a little better in counties other than Pima County, but Giffords still leads there as well.
The most important issue when deciding who to vote for:
45.8% Border control/immigration
10.7% War in Iraq
8.5% Candidates' experience
7.4% Party affiliation/Support for President Bush
7.2% Healthcare
5.8% Education
Importance of issues when deciding who to vote for:
Somewhat Important Very important
or very important
Immigration 82.3% 60.5%
War on Terror 82.2% 59.3%
War in Iraq 81.3% 59.0%
Which party controls Congress 71.3% 54.2%
National economy 69.1% 41.4%
Healthcare 67.8% 44.1%
Gay marriage 43.4% 31.1%
Poll results based on those who said each of the following is important:
Giffords leads among most "groups," including those who feel a candidate's views on immigration are important. The one exception is gay marriage, where each candidate has equal support.
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