ping
seek shelter, the sky is falling for sure ...
!!!!
I've read several articles suggesting anywhere from 28% to 35% of our GDP comes from real estate.
Not only from the people who buy & sell (real estate agents) and those who lend (mortgage brokers), but also from banks and lending institutions.
In addition there is a boatload of related services, such as law firms, appraisers, all the way down to your local Home Depot and furniture stores. All of whom are being impacted from this continued slowing.
The other point to ponder is "momentum". The average bear market in the stock market lasts about 21 months. But the last one lasted about 3 years. The reason: The bigger the bubble, the longer it takes to work itself out.
The last major real estate correction occurred in 1989-1990 and lasted until 1993ish. That was a relatively small bubble compared to this current one.
This suggests, that we could see prices fall for the next three years at least.
Never catch a falling knife.
Good luck all.
Why would nice weather, illegals overrunning the country and earthquakes be worth half a million in cash?
Yawnnnnnnnn
I sense a theme.
2004: Home prices rise. Be very afraid.
2005: Home prices rise. Be very afraid.
2006: Home prices drop. Be very afraid.
/2007: Shark! Be very afraid.
Coming soon to a housing market near you.
Do the media report this as "Homes more affordable" or do they twist it into a negative?
Sell everything you have and buy gold.
Dust off your Gary North-approved Y2K survival gear.
Draft Paul Craig Roberts for President in 2008.
Learn Chinese.
A drop in the rate of appreciation is NOT a drop in price? Geeeez.
That's as disingenuous as the democrats saying that CUTS in the RATE of INCREASES in social spending is a CUT in spending.
That's not only disingenuous, it is dishonest--just like the title of this article.
I apologize. There actually WERE 4 counties with price drops. I guess I have repsonded to too many other postings here where there were not price drops. I was wrong on this one.
From an expert realtor (in the family).
California is about to face another recession. With the exception of Michigan, which has still not recovered, they were the last to exit the last recession. Now, with the exception of Michigan, they are the first to go into recession.
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics...
Not disputing that the market has slowed down, but the perception of imminent collapse is bogus. Take San Mateo county as an example (biggest median decline for resale homes of 6.7%). Digging deeper into the stats shows that while the median sale price is down 6.7%, the price per sqft of home is actually UP 6.1% from $579 per sqft to $615 per sqft. breaking it down to the county level reduces the sample size and increases the impact of the sale (or non-sale) of a few VERY expensive properties. a few 1000 sqft homes that sell for $800K (not unusual for san mateo county) is more expensive per foot than a 10,000 sqft home that goes for $5M. The stats only show a market tendency toward smaller homes. My personal take is that the market is flat right now, and will remain flat to down VERY slightly in norcal... too many people with too much money and not enough development. as interest rates increase, rent prices bound the lower end of the market... a 3 bdrm 2 bath home in the nicer areas of san mateo county is renting for about $3-4K per month. Anyone who bought their home more than a year ago is paying less in mortgage than they could rent it for. It would take a depression, not a recession, to cause a significant drop (>10%) in values. not that it can't happen, but the sky is not falling yet.
Things are so bad here in LA that the illegals are living three families to a house now.
Some may be forced to bail. But if your home equity has been looted by exotic refinancing schemes . . . Look Out Below!
Housing Bubble Burst?!?!? More like a slow leak...my house in the Calif. Central Valley: up 205% in 10 years, down 1.2% in the last 30 days...still up 4.7% over the last year. They aren't making any new land! ('cept in Hawaii!)