Replies

Can you identify the last real estate bubble that burst without any quantifiable fundamentals?

The crash in the early 1990s that followed the 87 drop on wall street took the prices of real estate lower than fundamentals would suggest. That's part of the cycle: prices rise to an unreasonable degree and then drop to an unreasonable degree.

From what I've been hearing, the market is somewhat stalled in many areas. That is to say at the top of the curve. The next drop will probably be triggered by consumer debt and increased inventories of properties purchased for investment purposes, i.e. flipping.

Just my guess. I could be wrong.

The crash in the early 1990s that followed the 87 drop on wall street took the prices of real estate lower than fundamentals would suggest.

I'd expect much of this was driven by lower bonuses for Wall Street and the financial industry in general. Additionally, 1990 was the beginning of tough economic times for some of the country.

From what I've been hearing, the market is somewhat stalled in many areas.

After eight years of incredible gains this should not be surprising.

The next drop will probably be triggered by consumer debt

Our debt to income ratio is only 18.3% and is just .5% higher than it was a decade ago. Our credit card debt is just over $800 million, which sounds like a lot until you consider that we have more than $4.3 trillion in time deposits and savings accounts alone. On a per-capita basis, counting mortgages and not houses, our net financial assets total $89,800 vs. just $76,900 for Japan, who are the number two savers in the world.

The debt worriers never stop to consider assets. If they did they'd have nothing to worry about and would be miserable. The whole debt issue is much ado about nothing.

and increased inventories of properties purchased for investment purposes, i.e. flipping.

What percetage of all properties are owned by speculators? Will they all be forced to unload at the same time? Is this a local and regional issue (like Miami condo's) or is this exposure happening on a broader scale? I've seen no solid stats on the issue other than the unsubstantiated belief that flippers unloading their properties could cause the real estate market to crash.