Harris will win. I saw the first Nelson ad on TV last night, and he creates a very negative impression which is best described as "pompous ass". The more he appears on TV, and the more voters learn that he's a Kennedy-Kerry ultra-liberal clone, the more voters will say "no way", and vote for Harris.
As another observant FReeper JulieRNR21 noted--Nelson Who?
The Space Cadet is introducing himself to Floridians in his premier tv ad after being a non-entity and drawing a U.S. Senator's salary for the past six years.