The Hypothetical Effects of a Release of Pneumonic Plague in New York City
"Terrorists release a deadly plague in New York City. In this simulated exercise, terrorists on board a ship from the Middle East, with Liberian registry, are able to successfully and covertly release plague in the form of an aerosol in the New York City Harbor. Three days pass before the first cases of the plague victims beginning reporting to local hospitals and military treatment facilities for care. The intentional release of the plague on a modern metropolitan area would be devastating. Casualties would quickly overwhelm the existing medical system, and initial attempts at quarantine would fail. Panic would ensue, and eventually the world's population, governments and economies maybe impacted. Government and military leaders, reacting to demands of revenge from their populations, would begin military strikes against those countries, correctly or incorrectly assumed responsible for the initial release of the plague. Religious fanaticism would rise as extremists attempt to explain the modern catastrophe as the will of an angered God. The intentional and successful release of the plague by terrorists in a major metropolitan area would significantly alter the existing world society."
Scientists at Cardiff University, UK, believe they have discovered the cause of crop failures and summer frosts some 1,500 years ago a comet colliding with Earth.
The team has been studying evidence from tree rings, which suggests that the Earth underwent a series of very cold summers around 536-540 AD, indicating an effect rather like a nuclear winter.
The scientists in the School of Physics and Astronomy believe this was caused by a comet hitting the earth and exploding in the upper atmosphere. The debris from this giant explosion was such that it enveloped the earth in soot and ash, blocking out the sunlight and causing the very cold weather.
This effect is known as a plume and is similar to that which was seen when comet Shoemaker-Levy-9 hit Jupiter in 1995.
Historical references from this period - known as the Dark Ages are sparse, but what records there are, tell of crop failures and summer frosts.
The work was carried out by two Cardiff undergraduate students, Emma Rigby and Mel Symonds, as part of their student project work under the supervision of Dr Derek Ward-Thompson.
Their findings are reported in the February issue of Astronomy and Geophysics, the in-house magazine of the Royal Astronomical Society.
The surprising result of the new work is just how small a comet is needed to cause such dramatic effects. The scientists calculate that a comet not much more than half a kilometre across could cause a global nuclear winter effect. This is significantly smaller than was previously thought.
Dr. Ward-Thompson said: "One of the exciting aspects of this work is that we have re-classified the size of comet that represents a global threat. This work shows that even a comet of only half a kilometre in size could have global consequences. Previously nothing less than a kilometre across was counted as a global threat. If such an event happened again today, then once again a large fraction of the earth's population could face starvation."
The comet impact caused crop failures and wide-spread starvation among the sixth century population. The timing coincides with the Justinian Plague, widely believed to be the first appearance of the Black Death in Europe. It is possible that the plague was so rampant and took hold so quickly because the population was already weakened by starvation.
Let'er rip! Iran, SA, Pakistan,etc.