Au contraire, mon frère - there is a fourth option and it's the one the politicians will choose.
4) Keep the graduated income tax and ADD a national sales tax.
Nobody wants both taxes (except socialists).
Provided we can prevent both until the passage of HR 25, we will be MUCH safer.
HR 25 defunds the IRS, destroys existing income tax records (save those delinquent at changeover), eliminates withholding, and erases the entire income tax code.
Those things make it much, much harder to put an income tax back on.
Sure some politician could introduce a bill to RE fund the IRS. Sure, some politician could introduce a bill to force all businesses and individuals to create and save documentation wrt income and payroll taxes, and of course some politician could introduce legislation to RE implement withholding.
These things are unlikely to be sure. And if they happened, they'd have to be passed by folks expecting our votes!
In addition to the obtacles stated above, how long would it take to write and negotiate an entire income tax code?... (and WHO would propose it?)
It would be a nightmare to have both. IMO passing HR 25 makes it much less likely.