Analyst predicts plunge in gas prices

Seattle Times ^ | September 14, 2006 | Kevin G. Hall

[Petronski]

Can I earn interest and not go to hell?

NO!

ALLAHU AKBAR!

[1rudeboy]

Come home to the Democrat Party, comrade. LOL

[IronJack]

It would seem to, only if you willfully ignore that worldwide demand is also extremely high (or was in the summer time).

And has that demand dropped so massively that gasoline is now 30 to 35 percent cheaper than it was three months ago? Are supplies now so much more bloated that demand is irrelevant? No, what's happening now is that the oil speculators rode the roller coaster to the top, unloaded, stole their profits, and are now dumping. The true supply has never changed.

The recent price drops are all the result of things that DIDN'T happen: Iran NOT going nuclear, Prudhoe NOT being shut down, hurricanes that DIDN'T come. These are not events; they are the ABSENCE of events, fears that were never realized. But that doesn't mean they weren't exploited!

[Richard Kimball]

With a few exceptions, I've always believed that commodities traders are useful business people who provide a valuable service by ensuring an uninterrupted market and softening the effects of variances in supplies by purchasing future contracts. I can only imagine the volatility of the oil market if people DIDN'T buy futures. You'd see the price spiking, IMHO, by 100% over the course of a day. People complaining about the price variances due to the futures are complaining about the shock absorber that keeps it from being ten to fifteen times as volatile.

[Petronski]

You're just pissed because Reds still isn't available on DVD.

[Toddsterpatriot]

He was sounding a bit Muslim in his economic ignorance.

Will I go to Hell because, unlike him, I use toilet paper?

[1rudeboy]

Don't forget also that, while speculators exist in any market, the futures market is primarily used by individuals or entities to manage risk.

[IronJack]

If I was growing a soybean crop, would it not be a good thing to be able to negotiate a price for it prior to planting it? If I was going to drill for oil, would it not be a good thing to be able to negotiate a price for it prior to drilling for it? How are these things bad?

If you negotiate the price for beans at level X, and the market on delivery day has a price half that, the buyer is STILL forced to pay you X for your beans. How is that bad? Well, for YOU, it isn't. But futures are a zero-sum game. Every penny you gain has to come from someone else's loss. For the guy who's contracted to buy $10-a-bushel beans in a $4-a-bushel market, it's realllllllllll bad!

[Petronski]

Let not your heart be troubled! The 25th anniversary edition is coming October 10!

[Toddsterpatriot]

I know how futures contracts are traded. I've been doing it for years in ag commodities.

Buying ag futures and making food more expensive for widows, single mothers and children is a sure path to hell.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Liberals & the Hate Bush Crowd are deeply, and I mean DEEPLY saddened. ;)

However, Diana in Wisconsin is a Happy Camper. :) It's down to $2.47/gallon in southern Wisconsin at Kwik Trip.

http://www.gasbuddy.com

[Toddsterpatriot]

People complaining about the price variances due to the futures are complaining about the shock absorber that keeps it from being ten to fifteen times as volatile.

Your commonsense is a welcome addition to this thread.

[Petronski]

Ketchup soup and crackers. I'm still laughing at that one.



Not even "Saltines," either. They're too bourgeois. Strictly storebrand oyster crackers from the bulk foods section.

[IronJack]

"Starve" and "deprive" are terms that spring from differing concepts. The first suggests that something essential for physical survival is under-supplied, the other that something essential for use (or enjoyment) is restricted. Your equation of the two is the foundation of your economic ignorance,

Your distinction between the two illustrates YOUR semantic ignorance. Starvation implies deprivation. But in no way is deprivation limited to "restriction."

you must rely on emotional arguments to make your point.

And you must rely on vapid semantic quibbles to make yours. And then do so poorly.

[1rudeboy]

OK, a show of hands, who gets all teary-eyed when they listen to the Internationale?

[William Tell]

IronJack said: "One would think morality would constrain the purchase of a vital commodity to whatever was necessary, if exaggerated purchases would cause hardships to others. "

Does this mean that you support the Soviet system of deciding what a commodity should cost and then jailing anyone who charges more?

The Soviets controlled the price of bread below the cost of its ingredients. As a result, there was little bread to buy. If not the government, then who should decide the price that may be paid?

[1rudeboy]

Here, let me use crayon:

I can deprive you of Cheerios, but
depriving you of Cheerios will not make you starve.

[Toddsterpatriot]

But futures are a zero-sum game. Every penny you gain has to come from someone else's loss.

So every dollar a greedy oil speculator makes on the long side is offset by a dollar lost by a greedy oil speculator on the short side. Excellent. You're not a complete moron.

[patton]

Does it occur to you that the speculators aide the market, by assuming all the risk?

[Petronski]

Pasha contuinued, furiously, "Ketchup soup and crackers! They were women and children, Lara, asking for bread, and they cut them down like cattle! And all the while the pigs on Tverskaya Street were feasting and drinking wine . . ."