Will the democrats go into the midterm elections having blocked a vote on the program that interrogates terrorists to protect us from future attacks?
That sounds like a surefire way to lose seats.
The question is whether any of the republicans would feel so strongly about this that they would actually filibuster the bill. If not, the democrats would be hanging out there on their own.
The democrats gain favor with their base by obstructing Bush. The Repubs, running for reelection and election in 06-08 believe they gain traction by distancing themselves from Bush.
But the most recent polls indicate the base is coming back to support Bush, and they had already begun their obstruction prior to the polling. This has them in a trick bag.
As with most of these separation of power fights, they will try to save face and act like they were simply worried about the welfare of the people. The entire matter will likely fade into the background noise of the election in a couple weeks or so.