http://www.owise.com/servlet/ow?t=report&script=owise&r_COMMAND=ELECT2006
Owise has only been active a little over a year but it has already made surprisingly accurate estimates. When all the talking heads were saying Rove was likely to be indicted in Plamegate, Owise only gave that a 3% probability. Owise blends together estimates of its members, weighting them based on how accurate each member was in the past. Because a member gets zero weight untl they have a long track record, it is fairly resistant to being spammed like online polls.
Right now Owise is close to your estimates, saying GOP loses about 12 house seats and 3 to 4 senate seats, but is likely to retain narrow control of both. It does give the dems a 34% chance to take the house right now, but only a 9% chance of senate change.
Of course as evidence comes in, the members change their estimates to reflect new information.
http://www.owise.com here is the link
Thanks. I will be following Owise!
On the House side we have two Reps here in NH, both Republicans. Both have favorables above 55%. Polling by a respected local University researcher.
Yet, these seats have been considered potential pick ups for the Dems.
My wife asked a Dim State party official how much the national party was going to spend here and the answer was "nothing at the moment."
Its almost like they're trying to create hype on these seats pretending they may switch in hopes their fantasies will come true.