"Larry Sabato (Political Scientist at U of V) said it would be near impossible for the Republicans to win this seat with Graf. Something about the delicate make up of the district."
Larry is full of it. It's a republican district, which went for Bush in both 2000 and 2004 and elected Kolbe all these years. I think it's nothing more than Sabato's wishful thinking.
Sabato is a Bush door mat. Karl tells him to jump, and Sabato asks, "How far?" He was wrong about Tom Coburn in OK, and he can be wrong again. Of course, Graf won't get the Broke Back Mountain vote, as Kolbe did, but there aren't that many gay cowboys in AZ.