Voters Head to Polls in 9 States, D.C. for Primary Elections (LIVE THREAD)

FoxNews ^ | 09-12-06 | FoxNews/AP

[jan in Colorado]

Hat tip to you!

[sitetest]

Dear RobFromGa,

Although he's already announced as the winner, Benjamin Cardin's lead has slipped to about 44% - 40% with 96% of the vote counted. It's likely that it will slip a little further, with the final outcome being within perhaps 2% or 3%.

If it comes down to 2% - 3%, perhaps Mr. Mfume may feel a little cheated, especially with all the shenanigans at the polling places yesterday.

One can only hope. ;-)


sitetest

[Ronaldus Magnus]

Thank you AFPhys, your apology is of course accepted.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Cardin will win by at least 15%. No controversy."

---

With 96% of precincts in (what's still out, parts of Baltimore City and Montco?), Cardin leads Mfume by only 5%. Do you still believe that black Democrats will not be sore at how mishaps at the polls "cost Kweisi the election"? I think that Cardin will have a hard time motivating black Democrats to come out in large numbers in November. (The aftermath of the close primary in MD-04 will not be helpful to Cardin, either.)

Here are the latest vote totals for the Senate Democrat primary:

http://cbsdmg.com/elections/wjz/20060912/race300.shtml

[AuH2ORepublican]

sitetest, read my post right above this one. I guess great minds do think alike. : )

[kabar]

I didn't think it would be that close. Mfume still only garnered 40% of the total vote. It appears voting was done along racial lines, which means if there were just two candidates, Cardin and Mfume, I suspect that Cardin would have won 60-40. We will see if there is any controversy.

I have stated that I believed a Cardin victory would be the best thing for Steele, controversy or not. It demonstrates again to the Dems most loyal constituency, African-Americans, that race does matter in the primaries for statewide elections. Steele should benefit by the white Dem establishment's eschewing a former head of the NAACP in favor a relatively unknown white Congressman who just happens to be Jewish. I like Steele chances if he can get some Rep turnout and some black crossover votes.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I like Steele chances if he can get some Rep turnout and some black crossover votes."

---

On that we can agree. And even more important than Steele getting more black votes may be black turnout being less than exemplary following the Cardin-Mfume primary and the fact that it may be hard for them to get motivated to vote for a white (and Jewish) Democrat over the likeable black Lt. Governor.

[kabar]

I will agree with that. There is no doubt that black turnout will be depressed overall. I can't see Mfume helping very much unless the Dems can offer him some inducement, above or below the table.

[sitetest]

Dear kabar,

I'm sure that the Democrat Party is privately negotiating with Mr. Mfume as we speak. The question will be whether what they can give him will be big enough and lucrative enough to satisfy him.

Without Mr. Mfume's active support, Mr. Cardin stands no better than an even chance of winning.


sitetest

[sitetest]

"I guess great minds do think alike. : )"

...or sick minds?? ;-)

[crasher]

the gop has gone back up to 49% chance of keeping house on tradesports. It was 38 over weekend i think. interesting.

[Torie]

It must have been Graf's victory. :)

[Torie]

The Constituent Dynamics numbers are in for the three Indiana seats, and they show a horrible slaughter for the Pubbies, with the Pubbies doing considerably worse among likely voters than all voters. However, Researcch 2000 polls just in show closer races, with Sodrel down 6% among likely voters, and Hostettler down 4%.

[Sam Spade]

As I posted in a parallel universe, whilst these results are interesting, they make me a bit more suspicious of the Constituent Dynamics polling method for the moment.

Rationale: I know R2000's methods pretty well; they are similar to Mason-Dixon, but they cut some corners. This usually leaves them with a slight Dem lean (of a point or two historically).

The thing is, their results are usually pretty consistent. I can't think of a poll of theirs that has come out in the 2000-2004 period that was not somewhere between being on the money or on the outside edge of the Dem side of the MOE. I may be getting old and forgetful on this, but I'm pretty sure. That's the reason why I'm surprised that both polls would be more Republican than the new firm, one outside of MOE.

But still, my opinion is suspicious, not certain. The only thing that would clarify my opinion is more polls, obviously.

Even with that in mind, I would say that all three Indiana pubbies are still extremely in danger, with Hostettler the most likely of the three to survive, but I felt that way beforehand. :)

[StAnDeliver]

"The Constituent Dynamics numbers are in for the three Indiana seats, and they show a horrible slaughter for the Pubbies, with the Pubbies doing considerably worse among likely voters than all voters. However, Researcch 2000 polls just in show closer races, with Sodrel down 6% among likely voters, and Hostettler down 4%."

Not.

"Pollsters" had Sodrel down by 10+ LV at this point in 2004. You have no idea what you're talking about.