"Will Graf win in November?"
Not if Republicans keep attacking him. But if they give him a fair shot, I absolutely think he will win. The AZ-08 hasn't just voted for RINOs like Jim Kolbe, it has voted for conservatives like Jon Kyl (who will carry the district by a comfortable margin this November) and George W. Bush (the latter with 53% in 2004), and if anything Graf's tough stance on illegal immigration will gain him more votes.