The Pascal's Wager applies equally well for the wizard example as it does for Kyoto and its variants. It's hardly a sound basis on which to make decisions of enormous import and impact. A better basis would be "first, do no harm"...
I didn't expect to convince you. At the end of the day, powerful, level headed people are convinced and are taking action. Again and again I have written that we need a Republican solution to this problem that will be focused on solving it with the lowest cost and disruption.
Otherwise the left is going to implement a solution that maximizes their power.
The right is dropping the ball on an issue that will come to haunt it. Of that I am convinced.
Even if you don't buy the science the momentum is such that action is not going to be avoided. Regardless, at least using less oil is good for security.