Constituent Dynamics: Polls of 30 House races

Constituent Dynamics ^ | 9/6/2006

[DallasJ7]

Interactive map of U.S. House races and where they polled

PDF Summary of the poll results

PDF Explanation of the methodology

[DallasJ7]

If each of these poll results were the actual general election results, the Dems would gain 13 seats in the House, although one must note that qutie a few poll results are within the margin of error. And they didn't even poll several other Republican-held seats that have a decent chances of flipping Dem: the 3 Indiana seats (apparently Constituent Dynamics did poll those and will add the results to their site soon), the Delay seat, and the Weldon seat in Pennsylvania. They also didn't poll the vulnerable Dem-held Marshall seat in Georgia.

Now, I personally have not heard of Constituent Dyanmics before, but apparently they use the recorded voice technique of calling respondents that has worked quite well for Rasmussen and SurveyUSA. Being an unknown quantity, I wouldn't put all my stock in these results. Still, it's one more reason to believe that if the election were held today, the over/under would be in the area of -14 Republican seats, giving either the Pubbies or the Dems a very slim majority. This is gonna be one bumpy ride!

[dawn53]

Don't worry...be happy!

Too far out to pay any attention to polls. Just look at the Florida race yesterday, polls didn't match up at all with what actual results were.

[DallasJ7]

You guys have probably already seen this on your own, but just in case...

[DallasJ7]

Right, this is just an "if the election were held today" type thing. The dynamics can always change.

[ConservativeGreek]

Thanks, I like the map.

Their website indicates this firm is affiliated with RT Strategies for these map results. A RT Strategies one partner is a Dem and the other a Republican (Tarrance)

[DallasJ7]

I should also note that in a few of the races, where the primary has yet to take place, they polled generic candidates. This of course is not nearly as reliable as polling specific candidates.

[lkco]

OK. I now don't trust this poll. It's got the D's winning my seat, and even though this is a suburb of Seattle, my left-leaning GOP congressman is not going to lose ... the candidate the D's have is a joke! And this poll has the D up by 3 ... no state poll that I've seen is saying that.

[Sunnyvale CA Eng.]

The dynamics can always change.

Yea, but they won't this time. The Repubs are up for a ass beating of biblical proportions - I think many can smell it in the air but don't really want to admit it. I will vote R and for conservative ballot measures, but I still expect a lot of sad faces on FR the day after.

[Torie]

Thanks. But something this juicy does not elude the junkies for very long. I think we are on it, and discussing it on another thread.

[seenenuf]

I can't wait. Bring it on.
The overconfident Dems are in for a big disappointment.
Wonder what their excuse will be on this election, other than the same old whine and cocky cheese.
Gore the howler-in-chief paved the way.

[Kuksool]

Someone here decided to post the findings.

Keep in mind, the polls were taken on Aug 27-30 (Sun to Wed) last week. Gas prices don't start to come down until the Labor Day Weekend. If gas prices continue to decrease, then approval ratings for President Bush & Republicans in general, should go up as well.

[DallasJ7]

Haha of course, link to said thread?

[Torie]

Link.

[DallasJ7]

I don't think the Reichert result is too out of line. Kerry won the district by 3 points. And Reichert only got 51.5% in '04, a much more favorable macro enviroment for the Republicans.

[AntiGuv]

Much thanks for the ping! I can't really post much for now since I'm about to go catch a plane but these polls are certainly intriguing.

[okstate]

These polls were done by RT Strategies (which is Tarrance (GOP) and Reihle (Dem)) and the non-partisan Consumer Dynamics (which does polling mainly in the South, if I remember right).

[okstate]

Sorry, not Consumer Dynamics. It really is Constituent Dynamics. I apologize.

[RippyO]

Hrm....should I be surprised that Sherwood is doing so poorly?

[demlosers]

District Incumbent Party % Challenging Party % Margin

AZ-08* Primary 9/12/06 46 Primary 9/12/06 50 D+4

CO-04 Marilyn Musgrave 47 Angie Paccione 41 R+6

CO-07* Rick O’Donnell 46 Ed Perlmutter 48 D+2

CT-02 Rob Simmons 45 Joe Courtney 51 D+6

CT-04 Christopher Shays 49 Diane Farrell 42 R+7

FL-13* Primary 9/05/06 56 Primary 9/05/06 38 R+18

FL-22 Clay Shaw 52 Ron Klein 44 R+8

IA-01* Mike Whalen 41 Bruce Braley 54 D+13

IA-03 Leonard Boswell 54 Jeff Lamberti 43 D+11

IL-06* Peter Roskam 46 Tammy Duckworth 47 D+1

IL-08 Melissa Bean 48 David McSweeney 45 D+3

IN-02 Chris Chocola N/A Joe Donnelly N/A Polling under way

IN-08 John Hostettler N/A Brad Ellsworth N/A Polling under way

IN-09 Mike Sodrel N/A Baron Hill N/A Polling under way

KY-04 Geoff Davis 49 Ken Lucas 46 R+3

MN-06* Primary 9/12/06 53 Primary 9/12/06 42 R+11

NC-11 Charles Taylor 47 Heath Shuler 50 D+3

NM-01 Heather Wilson 48 Patricia Madrid 45 R+3

NV-03 Jon Porter 51 Tessa Hafen 43 R+8

NY-24* Primary 9/12/06 41 Primary 9/12/06 49 D+8

OH-06* Charlie Wilson 56 Chuck Blasdel 40 D+16

OH-18* Primary 9/14/06 43 Zack Space 47 D+4

PA-06 Jim Gerlach 45 Lois Murphy 50 D+5

PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick 53 Patrick Murphy 45 R+8

PA-10 Don Sherwood 43 Chris Carney 50 D +7

WA-08 Dave Reichert 46 Darcy Burner 49 D+3

WI-08* Primary 9/12/06 44 Primary 9/12/06 48 D+4

VA-02 Thelma Drake 43 Phil Kellam 51 D+8

VT-AL* Peter Welch 54 Primary 9/12/06 40 D+14

WV-01 Alan Mollohan 52 Chris Wakim 42 D+10


What, no Irey Murtha poll?

[appeal2]

Summer polls, especially around a holiday week are notoriously inaccurate.