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"I agree that the PRD will likely splinter,but I wish you would elaborate as to why you think the left cannot merge into a new and stronger party."

There are several reasons:

--AMLO: Lopez Obrador is a messianic leader who is not about to step aside. Since he is the main impetus of the split among the Left, a developing union among them so long as he is in the picture is out of the question.

--Ideology: The Mexican Left runs a very wide gamut; all the way from the moderately Socialist Convergencia to the truly radical Labor Party, in addition to many small splinter groups. The ideological differences between these various groups are at times pronounced and the only unifying force has been the PRD, which if splintered, leaves everyone else adrift.

--Regionalism: The Left in Mexico is really strongest within the central and southern areas of the country, which generally speaking are less well-developed than the more advanced and industrialized North. If the PRD falls apart it is going to be very difficult for northern leftists to see a common bond of personal interest with those in the south, who they genuinely look down upon to be honest.

--The Latin American Left vs. the Mexican Left: This is something that is really quite new in the current situation. For a very long time the Mexican Left went its own way among the Latin American Left. They really looked down on Castro, they actually saw the Soviet Union as a threat during the Cold War, and even now a lot of them do not like Chavez and his whole "Bolivarian Project." The leftist tradition in Mexican politics is one in which they had their own ideologues and, generally speaking, the Mexican Left feels that the rest of Latin America has failed to appreciate their unique contributions to leftist thought. But AMLO has formed very close ties with Chavez, Cuba, and others elsewhere in Latin America and, if the PRD should split, this will continue to be a divisive factor.

--The effects of good government: Contrary to what many people will tell you about how terrible conditions are in Mexico, they really are a lot better than many people think. In fact, Mexico is really poised at a take-off point. There are still genuine challenges of poverty confronting the country's leaders, but compared to the shape of the country in the 1990's, when you had double-digit inflation, almost zero growth in GDP, sky-high interest rates, poverty rates approaching 60% (they're now near 40%); things have improved considerably. And if they continue to do so that must be considered hope for the future.

But the big worry we all face on this last issue is that AMLO may learn from the Left in the rest of Latin America and implement a plan of "Miserification," to destroy the country so that he -- or someone else on the Left -- can save it. Even this evening I watched the news on Univision and heard a new term which is now coming into use; Lopez Obrador y la vida imposible (Lopez Obrador and the impossible life). I think you get the idea. But I am personally convinced that the responsible people of Mexico can only be pushed so far before they strike back.

And I did get your other msg, and will respond when I get the chance.

Regarding trouble in Oaxaca and Chiapas.

Whatever happened to Subcomandante, what was his name, Marcos?, I was not paying much attention for several of the past years, and lost track of his activities.

Regarding the north of Mexico looking down on the south. Of course they look down as the proportion of pure "Indios" is much higher in the south, some even continue to wear their tribal dress. [Personal note: in 1960 I visited Chiapas and stayed at the home of Franz Blom, a noted anthropologist. He told us that the people living in their traditional style were actually better fed and healthier than those who had adopted European/Spanish ways. While there our group rode horses 6 miles to visit an isolated village. We asked the Mayor for permission to visit and walk around. He and his two deputies were the only people who spoke Spanish. The rest spoke an Indian language.]

Regarding the Mexican left vs. the Latin American left. To what extent was Mexico influence by Trotski. Also, do you remember what that argument was that got him assassinated in Mexico? Has that argument influence the Mexican left.