The Long Goodbye (Tony Blair)

Tony Blair has caved in to pressure from his MPs, it was reported last night, by setting May 31 next year for his resignation as Labour leader.

An eight-week leadership election campaign will follow allowing a new leader — the favourite being Gordon Brown — to be chosen by July 26, when Mr Blair will step down as Prime Minister.

Labour sources cast doubt on Mr Blair lasting until May No 10 described the claims as "speculative" but refused to deny their accuracy.

The development followed a day in which 17 formerly loyal MPs, including Government members, sent a letter demanding that he step down immediately.

Two Blairite Cabinet ministers, David Miliband, the Environment Secretary, and Hilary Armstrong, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, said they expected Mr Blair to go within a year.

It also bore out a report in The Daily Telegraph at the end of June that Mr Blair had decided to go next May after 10 years as Prime Minister.

The decision by Cabinet ministers to place a limit of a year on Mr Blair's tenure reflected mounting panic in Downing Street as up to 100 Labour backbenchers prepared to sign demands for him to set a clear timetable for departure.

The Prime Minister infuriated colleagues last week by suggesting he would not be pushed into making public a timetable for his departure.

But since then aides have suggested he did not mean to appear defiant and had intended to reassure MPs he would not "go on and on".

Frustration at the refusal to offer clarity about a departure date boiled over yesterday.

Three letters circulated among MPs demanding that he make his intention clear. Many of those who signed an initial letter sent to Mr Blair were formerly loyal supporters of the New Labour project.

Those calling for him to go immediately included Tom Watson, a junior member of the defence team.

During a day of high drama Mr Blair had been left with little option but to clear up the confusion.

It emerged that angry backbenchers were planning to send a delegation of party grandees to Downing Street within days to demand that he set a firm timetable.

The Prime Minister has resisted going public with a date, fearing that his authority would drain away in the last months in office.

It was also disclosed that a party whip, Kevin Brennan, whose job is to discipline rebellious MPs, wrote separately to the Prime Minister expressing his view that he should go. There was no disciplinary action against him.

The claims of a May 31 resignation surfaced in The Sun, often used as a Government mouthpiece. Labour backbenchers were likening the atmosphere inside their party to the turmoil in Tory ranks before Margaret Thatcher's downfall at the hands of rebel ministers in 1990.

Senior MPs said they now distrusted Mr Blair so profoundly that they would dispatch senior party figures to express their collective view to him face to face, before this month's party conference.

Several MPs claimed cracks were appearing in the Cabinet and named Jack Straw, the Leader of the Commons and Peter Hain, the Northern Ireland Secretary, among those considering confronting Mr Blair over his departure date. Adding to speculation, a leaked Downing Street memo suggested that planning for the hand over to a successor was well in train — despite repeated denials.

A five-page document leaked to the Daily Mirror suggests that Mr Blair needs to "go with the crowds wanting more" and sets out plans for a nationwide "farewell tour". That includes appearances on television programmes such as Blue Peter and Songs of Praise in his final month in office.

David Hill, Mr Blair's director of communications, said the memo had not been seen by the Prime Minister or other senior aides.

As well as Mr Watson, a supporter of Mr Brown, the signatories to the letter from the 17 MPs in the 2001 intake to Parliament included up to six parliamentary aides to ministers.

The decision to turn on the Prime Minister was triggered by his refusal last week to lay out a detailed timetable for his resignation.

He told MPs in a newspaper interview to stop "obsessing" about the leadership, and implied that he would lose authority if he gave a date for his exit months in advance.

Frantic attempts to shore up Mr Blair's authority were launched by senior Downing Street staff who telephoned MPs to try to persuade them to sign rival letters supporting the Prime Minister.

By early evening 49 MPs had signed the supportive version, urging Mr Blair to stick to his guns by refusing to lay out a detailed timetable in public.

Many MPs reported, however, that they had rejected Downing Street's offer in no uncertain terms.

Friends of Mr Blair said he was intending to step down some time next spring or summer but believed his Government would be paralysed if he spelt out a step by step timetable and went public with the plan.

However, Cabinet allies of the Prime Minister attempted to reassure rebellious backbenchers that he would not "go on and on" as they tried to contain the revolt.

Hilary Armstrong, a former chief whip, said that it was now clear that the Prime Minister would be out within a year.

"The perceived wisdom, although I might have advised something differently, is that he [Mr Blair] acknowledges that by conference next year, there will be a new leader in place," she said.

Earlier David Miliband, the Environment Secretary, said it was "reasonable" to suppose that the Prime Minister would go in about a year.

Such remarks from arch-Blairites suggested that they had been authorised to speak out to clear the air over the Prime Minister's plans for his future.

Blair loyalists acknowledged yesterday that the letters demanding that he accelerate his departure were particularly damaging because they had been signed by former Blair supporters.

These included Chris Bryant, the MP for Rhondda and Sion Simon, MP for Birmingham Erdington.

I'll put aside for the moment his damage to the British economy and culture and thank him for understanding the greatest threat to this and to the next generation; Islamofascism.

From what I can gather this side of the pond, he did what he could given the state of politics there.

Thanks Tony. I'll be sad to see you go.

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