Mexican Left Warns Army and Federal Police Regarding Independence Day Celebration (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | September 4, 2006 | Jorge Ramos ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

Fernandez Noroña: "We are arriving first at the Zocalo Capital Plaza"

The PRD spokesman rejects that they can be evicted by federal forces, because "they will need some five policemen per protestor, because they will have to carry us away."

"We are arriving first" at the Zocalo capital plaza of Mexico City, Gerardo Fernandez Noroña, spokesman of the PRD, maintained while arguing that they will celebrate the National Democratic Convention on this spot,¹ independently of what the Mexican Army anticipates, which is that the 16th of September will be an Independence Day parade.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has summoned more than a million people to participate in said convention the 16th of September in the Zocalo capital plaza.²

"The National Democratic Convention will be there," Fernandez Noroña warned in a press conference.

Even so, the PRD spokesman rejected that they can be evicted by federal forces.

"The Federal Preventive Police (PFP) will not be able to catch up, they are 13 thousand and they will need some five policemen per protestor, because they will have to carry us away."

Moreover, the PRD member asserted that an action like this "must only fall on the federal government," because he assured that the Federal District Government will not intervene in this manner.

"We are not going to move," Gerardo Fernandez stated.

As to the question of whether they have thought of taking down the protest encampments at some time, Fernandez Noroña admitted that "at least until the 16th of September, from here until the day of the 16th, we are not moving."

The PRD member said that the Army will not pass on top of them, yes to the side or acting together, "but on top of us, no."

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Translator's Notes:

¹ ...on this spot... Fernandez Noroña was speaking at a press conference held in the protest encampment the PRD has maintained on the Zocalo capital plaza for over a month now as part of their shutdown of the central business district of Mexico City in protest over the handling of the vote counting in the July 2 presidential election.

² Lopez Obrador has summoned his "National Democratic Convention" to meet in the Zocalo capital plaza Saturday September 16, which is Mexico's Independence Day, when an annual celebration is held on the plaza involving the Mexican armed forces every year. Lopez Obrador claims his convention will have the right to name him the next President of Mexico as well as permitting him to set up a parallel government.

[StJacques]

Well everyone, we're heading for a second showdown between the PRD and the federal government. Lopez Obrador is insisting that he will hold his National Democratic Convention in the Zocalo capital square in Mexico City on September 16, which will amount to a complete hijacking of the Mexican Independence Day celebration by his party to support its protest of the presidential election. As I posted about one week ago, Vicente Fox and the Mexican Defense Department (SEDENA) have both made clear that they intend to hold their celebration in the same manner in which they always do. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I can say that the tone of the PRD rhetoric has become even more shrill after their success this past Friday in seizing the rostrum at the national legislature and preventing Vicente Fox from giving his annual Informe or "Report of the Government," which is the Mexican equivalent of the "State of the Union Address" we have every year. Over the past few days there has been widespread condemnation of the PRD among Mexican public officials, news journalists, editorialists, novelists, the international press (something that has been followed very closely in Mexico), and more. There are some people who are very angry with the PRD right now.

Mexico's Electoral Tribunal will finish their handling of the Presidential Election tomorrow, when they will pronounce whether the election was "valid." They have two choices; either declare it valid, in which case Calderon becomes President-Elect, or annul the election and start the presidential campaign all over again. Tomorrow will be a very big day.

And I will remind everyone that I have been posting for some time now that Vicente Fox is forbidden from injecting himself into the presidential campaign by Mexican law, and that the campaign is not officially "over" until the Electoral Tribunal pronounces a winner. Once that declaration is made Fox's hands will be, to some extent, "untied" and we may expect to see more forceful action from him then. I am not going to predict that is what we will see, but I do mention it because, once the election campaign is over, the rules will change.

[StJacques]

A Mex-Elex ping for you all.

Anyone wishing to track the other translations I have posted on the post-election controversy in Mexico may do so using the forum's "keyword" search option with the unique keyword -- STJTRANSLATION

[SAJ]

MXP opened firm against USD in tonight's forex mkts. So did virtually everything else, with AUD being a feature.

Looks so far as if Obragore's screwing around is not having ANY effect on sentiment at all.

[GreyFriar]

Do you think the MSM will say anything about a "looming civil war in Mexico"? Or will even mention anything other than how US citizens are opressing the illegal aliens from Mexico here?

[tet68]

Tomorrow is a most important day for Mexico and for us.
Thank you again for all your hard work, it is FReepers
like yourself that make this forum the interesting and
informative, influential site it is.

[ASOC]

Thanks for posting

As for the "they will need some five policemen per protestor, because they will have to carry us away." statement - it only takes one cop with a one meter wooden truncheon to move folks along.

[Shuttle Shucker]

As Fox said today that "in a democracy, the government doesn't use the army against the people," I don't expect he'll act particularly decisively even when he can. Why annoy the PRD into calling for formal political inquisitions against his wife and step-sons more than they already do? Felipe won't do it regardless, as Fox has done enough for him already. Now the idea is to do damage-control with ObraGore.

On a different note, maybe ObraGore's getting paid to act like this so the impoverished will still have faith in politicians' refusal to sell-out and more passively accept electoral results that some people don't believe in? Perhaps the payment is through blackmail regarding scandals in which he's been involved as governor.

Either way, as SAJ mentions, peso markets aren't being affected much.

Interestingly enough, like ObraGore's parade, pro-amnesty immigration protests in the USA are losing steam too:

http://reuters.myway.com/article/20060904/2006-09-04T215819Z_01_N04282569_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-USA-IMMIGRATION-PROTEST-DC.html

We'll see how the march goes on Washington D.C. this Thursday. But it would seem that Latinos realize that Mexico is going to have to start doing for its own, rather than export its problems to an already debt-laden USA.

[knarf]

They (Mexico) grew 'em ... Now they can reap 'em.

[StJacques]

You know in all the discussions about the Mexican peso and the strength it has consistently shown in international currency exchange markets, and I am personally grateful that you have kept us apprised of this SAJ, it may be worth noting what those things are which attract international investors to an emerging industrial country like Mexico. I submit it is in large part due to the new transparency in the keeping of the finances of the national government which Fox has implemented, but clearly that is not the only reason. Sooner or later investors will be looking at growth prospects and with a current annual GDP of 5.5%, inflation at just over 3%, the prospects of expanding the Mexican financial sector that follow from recent announcements of international banking consortiums of their intent to open broad-based service provision throught the country (even Wal-Mart wants to get into the banking business in Mexico), and much more it appears obvious that the country is poised for a take-off.

So in light of all that, someone may be inclined to ask "then why is it that we are seeing such political controversy within Mexico right now?"

What is it the sociologists tell us about when you can expect to see the greatest potential for street protests? I believe the answer is that it usually surfaces in the early years of a period of "rising expectations." I think this is what we're witnessing right now.

[StJacques]

"Do you think the MSM will say anything about a "looming civil war in Mexico"?"

I'm not sure I would say there is a "looming civil war in Mexico," but I would be willing to advance the notion that the country is on the verge of a "political meltdown" that will split national life on a roughly north-south boundary above and below Mexico City. North of that, things will stay pretty peaceful. But south of it, and especially in the very impoverished rural states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, where things are quite unstable right now, you could see the development of the near-ingovernability of the region.

But I'm not terribly disappointed in the MSM for its lack of coverage on Mexico because, when they do, they try to shove that liberal viewpoint down our throats that "it all arises out of the deep class antagonisms in Mexican society, which if unaddressed, could create calamity for the country." By which I mean they ignore the obvious political implications of an unwillingness to accept election results -- remember the MSM is still angry about the Florida 2000 recount and "voter suppression" elsewhere -- and how people should form judgements about what "democratic" and "undemocratic really mean. In the MSM view, these are relative concepts, which is to say they are relative to the social context, which predominates in their view.

I wrote and posted my own blog on the Christian Science Monitor and the way it was trying to pursue this traditional MSM tactic in its reporting of the crisis in Oaxaca and how it related to the Mexican post-election controversy. Not many people paid attention to it, but here is the link:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1673383/posts

[rovenstinez]

Here in Mexico there are a few that have made reference to the TWO PRESIDENTS. The people actually have come to think that hey, maybe we do have TWO Presidents, many husbands have two wives! Many tents on the street are abandoned, and it looks to aerial cameras that the streets swarm with agitators,NOT SO. And for most people, it's care less time. Local markets around Mexico City have dropped, tourism is down 50%, some people are feeling a crunch, and jobless numbers are going up. http://www.mexiconews.com.mx/20126.html Fox has made public statements that using the Mexican Army to clear streets is NOT an option. Some have lost their respect in him as Commander of Cheif as things are getting out of whack.

[AnimalLover]

PING

[kidd]

Do you have any reason to believe that they will annul the election?

[Shuttle Shucker]

Saint, it would seem that work like yours to keep thinking people informed about obstacles to progress in Mexico for the Mexicans' benefit has yielded a very positive result. Rather than have the USA continue to serve as a safety valve into which inept Mexican bureaucrats and corrupting oligarchs can callously toss their downtrodden Mexican people, Congress is becoming emboldened to give Mexico the "tough love" that I truly believe Mexico needs to achieve its impressive potential. This is now up at DrudgeReport.com:

REPUBLICANS IN HOUSE PUT IMMIGRATION ON HOLD; WILL FOCUS ON ANTI-TERROR BILLS... DEVELOPING...

I have yet to meet a Mexican immigrant who didn't wish Mexico were finally living up to its potential. Frankly I'm not aware of any who would remain here illegally if Mexico were worth returning to. Stress is the mother of innovation and the immigration clampdown can empower reformers down there to do what's good for the country and our continent. Without people like you though, Saint, journalists and other leaders would be in the dark and subjected to Leftists' biased reports. Nice going Saint! And to everyone else who has helped make a difference on this important front.

[StJacques]

"Do you have any reason to believe that they will annul the election?"

I would say it is highly unlikely given the way their proceedings have gone thus far. We have not seen the Electoral Tribunal undertaking the kind of investigation before the public which says that they might annul the election. Of course; that does not mean that they might not be doing exactly that in private.

Just to give you a complete answer to your question, I'm going to translate one paragraph from an El Universal article up today entitled "The Process, Hours from the Result," which summarizes the arguments that have been made to annul the election:

. . . Moreover, it is argued that the lack of certainty in the Program of Preliminary Electoral Results, the growth in the number of null votes in relation to the election of 2000, the slowness of the IFE to face and order the suspension of the defamatory [television and radio] spots, the supposed use of social programs in favor of Felipe Calderon, the speech of the Managing Director [of the IFE] Luis Carlos Ugalde that he had confirmed the advantage of the PAN candidate in the voting, excessive spending in the media, the meddling of the ex-Spanish President Jose Maria Aznar and the lack of control over the spending of presidential aspirants, before the elections. . . .

Note: If you're wondering about the Aznar "meddling issue" click here.

That is the sum total of arguments. I seriously doubt anything will come of the whole group of them taken together, but there is just something about judges that bothers me, even when I think they're doing their job.

And by the way, I would rate Calderon's chances at winning a second round as almost a slam dunk. Robert Madrazo of the PRI knows he doesn't have a chance and I cannot envision the PRI campaigning for the position with any fervor. I would expect them either to endorse Calderon or just stay out of his way. So that wouldn't be the worst outcome.

One more thing; AMLO himself has said that he thinks that the tribunal's declaration of Calderon as the winner is all but a "done deal," so that pretty much tells you what to expect.

[StJacques]

"Without people like you though, Saint, journalists and other leaders would be in the dark and subjected to Leftists' biased reports. Nice going Saint! And to everyone else who has helped make a difference on this important front."

Well I think you may be overstating my importance, but I appreciate the nice thoughts.

And may I say Shuttle Shucker, that from the first day you jumped into this "project" you have been contributing, as you continue to do to this day, in a most positive manner. My thanks!

[SAJ]

You're exactly right about the transparancy, or former lack thereof, Saint.

Even as recently as 1997-1998, those interested in MXP had to look at -- of ALL things -- posted CETES rates in order to find a direction (or try to find) for the currency. This of course was a hangover from the Jan 1995 collapse -- you couldn't get squat in terms of public info about what was going on in Mexico, amigo, unless you had a source on the ground (in Banco Nationale, preferably!).

These days, there's considerable transparancy, and I must complement Presidente Fox for probably being the author of this good result. This is clearly a good thing for the Peso, and Mexico generally, sociological issues aside. I can't say that at all I'm fond of Texas' attempt to end-run both American ports and American customs law with this bloody 'Trans-Texas corridor' as proposed (to be run by a Spanish firm, if you please!), but other than that, anything that increases Mexican prosperity generally can hardly help but increase our own.

[SAJ]

Er, ''compliment'', not ''complement'' (mutters at self...)

[Shuttle Shucker]

You bet, Saint. Now the question to be asked is will the wall / border get fortified? If so, that could give the PAN / PRI coalition the impetus to act more decisively against this obstructionist parallel government movement of ObraGore. Here's the latest on immigration amnesty and border issues (courtesy of Drudge):

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/05/us/05cong.html?ei=5065&en=3ccbb58ef1f8582b&ex=1158033600&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

[StJacques]

You know, one of the most important motivations I have had for monitoring the entire Mexican post-election controversy is that I have feared what kind of an impact unsettling events within Mexico might have on illegal immigration to the U.S. My worst fears in this regard were always associated with the possibility, however remote, that Lopez Obrador might come to power. But once removed from that scenario is the possibility that chaos within the country might portend for a halt to the wonderful economic progress the country has enjoyed under Fox, which really has been concentrated in the last three years or so.

When Calderon comes to office, the first thing we will want to see as an indicator that his administration will be ready to come to the table and deal on immigration -- hope, hope -- will be what he may do in terms of offering "an olive branch" to the PRD and their supporters in a manner that may require our help. I've only been thinking about this for a short time, because I never put much stock in the possibility that the PRD would answer Calderon's call for their participation in a "coalition" government, but there are a couple of things I have seen lately, which have almost gone by "under the radar," which suggest to me this might be in the offing. Calderon has made some public statements recently that he sees the roots of Mexico's current political crisis in the persistence of poverty in Mexico and, just a couple of days ago he responded to Cardinal Norberto Rivera's call for all Mexicans to work more forcefully to relieve the problems of poverty in the policies they will implement in the incoming administration. I don't think this was just posturing on Calderon's part. He truly does have that strong Catholic underpinning to his political philosophy that mandates attention to problems of impoverishment.

When I ask myself what Calderon could really do to answer the call to improve conditions for the poor that would not amount to either a rejection of his campaign promises or a reversion of his political philosophy I come up with one answer -- infrastructural improvements targeted to impoverished areas of the country. This would be very well received in those areas lagging behind the rest of the country in terms of development, it would mean jobs there of course, and it would also mean that Calderon would need help if the projects go beyond basic roads and sanitation. If he advances an infrastructure building program to include communications technology, he is going to need American help. And in his mind, getting American help in one area will clearly be a first step towards getting it elsewhere -- that means petroleum technology, which he cannot move on right away.

So I would say that if we see Calderon move quickly to implement an infrastructural construction program as a possible means of addressing anger and dissatisfaction with the PAN in PRD-controlled areas AND if that construction program goes beyond the mere basics, that Calderon is going to need our help. And if he needs us....