I bet he doesn't win by as much as people think. I also bet this gap is going to draw tighter in the closing days.
I agree. Arnold has 82% support among Republicans. The other 18% are probably Freepers who can't bring themselves to swallow Arnold's lurch to the left, so it's possible that nearly one-fifth of Republicans may not vote for governor in the election. Most of Wesley's supporters probably remain ambivalent toward Angelides. And let's face it...many might be willing to vote for Angelides, but can't bring themselves to vote for a guy who looks like a dweeb.
I don't know what 45-32 translates into if this 77% represents those who will eventually vote for a gubernatorial candidate, but it looks like Arnold could win big in a low-turnout election, where a good many Republicans and Democrats refuse to vote.
Dan, I find that hard to believe. Not that the polls won't show a tightening race, but that the final vote will reflect a contest.
In the face of the that logic stands Angelides almost complete lack of charisma on the stump, the actions of his enemies developed in the CADEM hierarchy over the years and Schmidt's obvious effort to take away Angelides appeal to the center.
Favoring that theory is a collapse of conservative support for the Republican in November and that failure, even if apparent, simply doesn't represent enough (max 4 points) to significantly reduce double digits leads .
IMO the only event that could trigger that magnitude of shift is if the Republican makes a last minute, miscalculated appeal to conservatives within his own party and I don't see Schmidt making that mistake.
If he signs the healthcare bill he will loose support.
However, I think his calculus is that it will be "free stuff" (bread to the mob) which will buy him votes.
Win the mob politics.
Angilides has no prayer.
A win is a win. I'll take this over ridiculous nailbiters like W's runs.