You are so very correct. Rove has delivered a tri trifecta (2000, 2002, 2004) to the GOP.
Gallop seems to get closer to the truth as elections draw near, so they won't be totally discredited. Early on most of the polls weight their numbers heavy toward the dim side in hopes of convincing the voters that all is lost.
In 2004, Rove turned a landslide against a moron into a near loss. In 2006, his obsession with amnesty and pandering for a hispanic vote that is already wrapped up by the Dems will result in loss of Congress.