Hezbollah's looming loss

The Washington Times ^ | September 1, 2006 | Austin Bay

[John Carey]

Israel's and Hezbollah's War of the Rockets has entered a new phase: the War of the Wallets, the race to gain political capital by rebuilding southern Lebanon. Diplomats and military analysts continue to debate The War of the Rockets. The conventional wisdom -- or more accurately, the wisdom of first impressions -- said Israel lost the military war and Hezbollah won by surviving. But the emerging "big picture" suggests the War of the Rockets physically punished and politically damaged Hezbollah, despite its media touts of victory. On the other hand, Israel cannot claim a victory -- at least, not yet. What did Hezbollah lose? The Israel-Hezbollah war began with Lebanon as a "hijacked nation-state." Hezbollah (supported by Iran and Syria) controlled southern Lebanon and Lebanon's southern border, which put the area in a geo-political limbo. Southern Lebanon was not fully sovereign Lebanese territory. At the moment, Israel exerts more control over Lebanon's southern border than Hezbollah, United Nations peacekeepers or the Lebanese government. That may not be an Israeli win, but it is no victory laurel for Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

This is the "glass half full" version. I am an optimist, and believe that Israel will endure and defeat (in the long run) any opponent. However, we are entering a new stage where Islamic terrorists have negated many of our allies in Europe with their large Muslim populations. Russia and China are playing their Iran cards. Most importantly, Iran, the ultimate state sponsoring terrorism, is likely to go nuclear in the near to medium term.
Further, the Iraq war has pushed more liberals (and some conservatives --Pat) into either isolationism, pacifism or appeasement.
Anyone with a military background can see that victory for the USA is only a problem if we lose our nerve ourselves. If we cannot believe in ourselves, we are lost. I think Israel still believes in itself. It has to or face annihilation. The same threat is there for the USA, but many still think we can hunker down, guard our ports, negotiate like Nevile C. and all will be well.

[John Carey]

George:

"Anyone with a military background can see that victory for the USA is only a problem if we lose our nerve ourselves."

Well, I certainly have the military background and a living daily reminder of what can go wrong. My bride is Vietnamese.

I'll have a commentary in Monday's Washington Times. One of the lines is this:

"But yet here at home in the United States we are politically divided and that, it would seem, erodes our will to win and our national determination. Our enemies certainly know this. To our enemies it might not be crystal clear that we are indivisible in our determination, with a national plan to succeed."

My big fear is that Iraq will turn into another Vietnam because the Democrats can't seem do do what is right for America first and themselves AFTER THAT.

Thanks for the comment.

John

[mcg2000]

Interesting perspective ... the capital may be slow in arriving, but I do believe that Hezbollah's financial backers will fund it. However ... without the capitalism that allows for things greater than the bare essentials ... replacing lifestyles with homes and a daily meal may not satisfy the pre-war expectations of the people.

Lebanon has been growing to expect more of their freedom. Not quite yet Turkey though imop ... nice article.

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

John,
I agree. The Democrats seem to be moving left like they did in 72 nominating George McGovern. Many Democrats know that the polls show that many Americans are impatient with Iraq. It seems that many don't really care if we win in Iraq, that they would rather beat up on Bush so that they can regain power.
It chills me to think of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House and Hillary Clinton as President.

[SJackson]

If you'd like to be on this middle east/political ping list, please FR mail me.

High Volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel.

also Keywords 2006israelwar or WOT [War on Terror]

----------------------------