Most people who consider themselves to be nonpartisan but are engaged enough to vote don't like being told that it's all over and, in this case, that the Democrats have a lock on the mid-term elections. That's why many politicians with big poll leads pre-election always down-play their probable success. First, to ward off apathy from their natural constituency and also to keep voters from voting against them because they seem a bit too confident. That attitude appears arrogant and clearly insults voters because it assumes that the candidate is going to get your vote, no matter what. This does not apply to African-American voters, obviously. They seem to vote Democrat 'no matter what' - but even that sad reality could be changing or changing just enough to sway the mid-term elections and possibly the 2008 presidential election, which may be a free-for-all.
As the MSNBC piece notes, religious people, especially evangelical Christians, see the Democrat party for the threat it is to their beliefs (the Democrats seem to oppose most of what Evangelical Christians stand for) as well as their religious freedoms. While they may not all love George W. Bush and may be even tiring of the Iraq war, they are not about to put one more Democrat in congress if they can help it. Religious folks are angry at being told that simply opposing same-sex 'marriage' or seeking to maintain the tradition of having a 'religious' display on the village Green at Christmastime (a 'religious' holiday, no less) makes them akin to Muslim fanatics.
Comments like that of Screamin' Howard Dean with none-too-subtle threats about yanking church tax exemptions, while hardly credible, harden many 'religious' folks attitudes against Democrats. What can they expect? They insult and work against what many religious people hold dear, such as the sancity of unborn life, then make threats about reconsidering tax exemptions for 'politically active' churches (like many Black churches, Mr. Dean?) - and wonder why they lose the vast majority of the 'religious' vote, which is huge. Idiots.
I wouldn't take all those 'It's the Democrat's year' announcements from the pundits too seriously, especially as long as Howard Dean can still speak for the DNC. His big mouth and small brain are the Republicans best 'weapon'.
If I were a honcho in the GOP I would be reminding probable Republican voters (who may be suffering from apathy this election year) that a Democrat congressional victory in November will mean, not only a rapid (and dangerous) pullout from Iraq and a diminished focus on terrorism at a time when that is akin to national suicide, but that President Bush will likely be forced to fight endless attempts at impeachment from Democrats for the remainder of his term if they hold the congressional majority. That helps no one - including Democrats - but the hard left wing of the Democrat party and it's fanatical Bush-hatred will make it a reality if they think they have the votes to pull it off.
While Democrats will be beating the bushes (and the illegal immigrant hangouts) for Democrat voters, the Republicans will also be out in force and the recent words of Howard Dean regarding churches and tax exemptions, his hasty 'clarification' aside (who will believe him?) will be one of many motivating factors getting them to the polls on election day to vote for Republicans, reservations forgotten, and against Democrats. I'm sure of it. I think a few Republicans may lose here and there as will a few Democrats, but I do not believe that Democrats will gain a congressional majority in November and I'll be here to admit I was wrong, if I am, and to say I was correct, if I am. I sincerely hope that it is the latter.
Good post. I believe and hope that you will be proven right in November.