Rather
remote play at the moment, as to Michigan . I really don't think so, as to something that affects the odds of the overall result much. If this seat goes GOP, some of the others in play will as well. The tide will have changed, rather decisively. The attenuated end of the GOP end of the bell curve will have been realized. Of course, the play of campaigns as time goes on matters. Think Virginia. Think Rhode Island. Think maybe, we shall see, New Jersey. Luck is luck.
I agree with you on that. If we said the Dems have a 30 percent chance of taking over the Senate right now, and then if God told me right now that MI was definitely going to be held by the Dems, that piece of info. would probably not bump their odds up to as high as even 31 percent.