I am originally from Tucson. My brother (a conservative business owner) is helping Graf out. He told me last weekend that Randy is slightly ahead in the polls.
He'll win the primary. The Dems down there are going to bury him with money, I fear, they've both raised a ton. Graf hasn't done much to raise money, and the NRCC's disloyalty is only going to make him spend more on the primary.