I respectful disagree - This isn't over. Charlie knows it. That's why he's gone on a crazed attack.
Gallagher still has a fighting chance
Florida Insider, 08/30/2006
There’s a growing perception among some Florida Republican insiders that Charlie Crist needs to run out the clock.
Our poll last week for the Florida Chamber of Commerce showed Crist’s supposedly insurmountable lead over Gallagher in the GOP primary race for governor to be shrinking. The Crist campaign pooh-poohs the notion. They cite internal and other polls that indicate his lead is growing again, if it ever dwindled to start with.
Maybe. But then why has Crist gone from offense to defense on televised debates and with paid TV ads? In Monday night’s debate – which Gallagher won – Crist unwillingly shed his Ronald Reagan, Teflon armor and got testy. He let Gallagher’s insistent attacks get under his skin. In sports lingo, that’s called playing down to your competition. Strange stuff for someone who believes he will win walking away.
Likewise on paid TV is Crist playing a defensive brand of one-upmanship about who stands furthest to the right. These mutual recriminations are starting to amount to so much white noise. And further disengagement among an already disengaged conservative electorate might help Gallagher. It might further depress voter turnout and leave indignant social conservatives in possession of the field.
Storms and voter indifference
Our polling and official projections both show a likely low turnout Tuesday. Jeb Bush isn’t running. There are a limited number of contested primaries and legislative races. Many Republicans are put out with their leaders in Washington. It’s Labor Day weekend. The Miami-Florida State football game is Monday night.
And now most of the Florida peninsula is soaked with the rains of Ernesto. No, it’s not a hurricane and it will be long gone by Tuesday. But its effect won’t. Broadcast and newspaper media have shoved politics aside this week for storm coverage. That means TV gross ratings points for Crist and Gallagher have likely been diminished.
Our take is that this is more of a danger to Crist. His ads appear reactive, whereas Gallagher’s are the icing on a strategic cake that was baked long ago. Crist is reinventing himself late. That requires drenching Florida TV markets with ads -- especially when you've stumbled slightly in your last debate. (Gallagher insiders curse themselves for not jumping on Crist's offer months back to hold up to a dozen, in-depth "Lincoln-Douglas" debates.)
Stormy weather can also affect get-out-the-vote efforts. Again, Crist may be more hurt than Gallagher, who has put more emphasis on grassroots organization – his team would appear to know where their voters are and how to corral them.
North Florida hasn’t gotten the hurricane scare that South Florida has. Particularly in the Panhandle, conservative North Florida leans towards Gallagher. Might these voters turn out in disproportionately higher numbers than their Republican counterparts in South and Central Florida?
“While the Panhandle makes up a smaller portion of the overall vote in most GOP primaries, what if campaign organizations there are better organized and more motivated than in other regions?,” said Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage, the publisher of Florida Insider. “And what if TV campaign ads in other areas are being trumped or marginalized by broadcasting dedicated to protecting against the storm?,” he said. “If the race actually narrows and turnout overall is thin, the weather situation could help Gallagher."
Another of the few demographics favorable to Gallagher is Latino voters. His unabashedly pro-life rhetoric resonates with these observant Catholics. And Latinos vote. Especially the older ones.
Also, the Jeb Bush machine is running hot in Miami. That’s where Republican state Senate rebel Alex Villalobos is being targeted for defeat for having abandoned the GOP on two key votes in the Legislature last spring. The governor is appearing in Spanish-speaking media and on automated campaign phone calls on behalf of challenger Frank Bolaños. Bush speaks fluent Spanish. Plus, his face is the face of reassurance in hurricane-information free media.
“Were this race to take place absent bad weather leading up to it, and were Election Day not the day after Labor Day, I’d say Crist would be more than safe,” said Towery. “But I sense that Gallagher is starting to move to his camp some voters who are more hard-core Jeb Bush supporters. And with a weak turnout, Gallagher’s late surge could be setting us up for a much tighter finish than is widely believed.”
Unofficial help for Gallagher?
Beyond all this, the recent, dramatic appearance of superstar campaign consultant Mike Murphy in Gallagher's camp is a puff of smoke that almost surely hides a fire named Jeb. Throw in Gallagher supporters with extensive organizational expertise, such as former state Republican chairman Al Cárdenas, and you’ve got what looks like an officially unofficial political machine working for Gallagher.
"When I heard that Mike Murphy had moved to the Gallagher team, I knew there was no way this would have happened if it were deemed offensive to Gov. Bush,” said Matt Towery. “Mike's work is known in GOP circles, dating back into my campaigning days of the 1980s. (Sorry Mike, our Mack Mattingly Georgia US Senate race in 1986 isn’t our best memory. Then again, everybody in the GOP went down that year.)
“Murphy’s entrance in the campaign was the first spark in the Gallagher effort,” said Towery.
“Then came the first Crist-Gallagher debate. From the standpoint of strict forensic scoring, Crist won it. But from a strategic angle, Gallagher set forth in the conservative attack mode that brought more focus to the race,” he said.
Here’s another hidden dynamic in this race: Consider how Ralph Reed was upset in his GOP lieutenant gubernatorial race in Georgia. He got beat by an unknown state senator. Our analysts say a prime reason was that while Reed did not pick up the support from social conservatives he was banking on, opponent Casey Cagle lined up the support of fellow senators. The result was a makeshift but effective get-out-the-vote apparatus throughout that state.
A similar dynamic could play to Gallagher’s benefit. House leadership hasn’t openly endorsed him, but it has officially backed the perceived more conservative candidate for state chief financial officer, Randy Johnson of Celebration. Insiders say there are many in the highly conservative state House who may work their constituents on behalf of Gallagher, although there are certainly many who back Crist.
“There’s been little attention given to the legislative support Gallagher is receiving from the Jeb Bush-associated House of Representatives,” said Towery. “Legislators have been playing a role in these low turnout GOP primaries in the South. They may not have much of a machine, but when there isn't anyone voting, any machine is better than nothing."
From the Campaign:
To divert attention from his opposition to Governor Jeb Bush on the liberal class-size spending plan and his support for amnesty, his support for civil unions for gay couples, and his pro-choice views, Charlie Crist and his campaign team are attacking Tom Gallagher personally.
After a quick review of the facts below, Republican voters will see through this smokescreen.
Claim #1:
Charlie Crist claims to be a Reagan Republican and a Jeb Bush Republican.
Facts:
Wrong, Mr. Crist. Mr. Crist is not a conservative, and his liberal positions have netted him the endorsements of the Sierra Club and Watermark Online, a Florida Gay and Lesbian newspaper.
· Crist has broken ranks with conservatives and supports a liberal big spending plan that Jeb Bush says will raise taxes.
· Crist supports amnesty for illegal immigrants.
· Crist supports civil unions for gays.
· Crist is pro-choice.
· Crist is supported by casino interests including Donald Trump and will not take a clear stand to halt the expansion of gambling in Florida.
Claim #2:
In an attempt to divert attention from his sorry stands on the issues, Charlie Crist and his 527s are attacking Tom Gallagher personally and claim that Gallagher is “awaiting trail” for ethics charges.
Facts:
Wrong again, and Mr. Crist should be ashamed of himself. He is distorting the facts.
· Earlier this year, a reporter made Tom aware of a 1991 ethics opinion that indicated that he may have wrongly held stock in two companies back in 2002.
· Tom asked the Ethics Commission to review those stock holdings and give him a recommendation.
· Simultaneously, politically-motivated ethics complaints were filed against Gallagher.
· The Commission investigated both the allegations in the complaints and the stock holdings that Tom had brought to the Commission’s attention (these holdings were not mentioned in the complaints).
· In July of this year, the Commission found that there was no reason to believe the Treasurer had intentionally violated any of our state’s ethics laws.
· Every single issue raised by others in their complaints was dismissed. The Commission found that the Treasurer did not misuse his office; that he did not give preferential treatment to any company in which he owned stock; and that the Treasurer did not use any “inside information” for his personal gain.
· Tom has served as a public official for 30 years, and has never had an ethics complaint filed against him until this year. The Commission’s conclusion validated Tom’s character and his commitment to leadership on behalf of the people of Florida.
· The Commission found that the Treasurer may have improperly held small amounts of stock in two insurance-related companies for brief periods several years ago. Both issues involve technical violations, and again, the Commission found that there was no intentional wrongdoing on the Treasurer’s part.
· There will be no further investigation by the Commission. Tom is not awaiting trial. Experts conclude that a penalty, if any, would be a small fine.
Remember, vote on the issues on September 5th and elect Tom Gallagher our next Governor.