Posted on 08/29/2006 2:53:52 PM PDT by Blogger
Before that, the last Pacific hurricane to hit California was in 1938."
But if it hit this time it would be different. It would be a result of global warming.
If the storm finds it's way into the warm waters off the Gulf of California then they can, and do, come up the Colorado River at Yuma and cause a lot of rain and flooding in California as well as Arizona, Utah and Colorado. Rare, the last one was about four or five years ago. They die out before hitting the California coast because the water is deep and cold and cold water kills hurricanes. So the key is if it would jump Baja and into the Gulf of California.
If the storm finds it's way into the warm waters off the Gulf of California then they can, and do, come up the Colorado River at Yuma and cause a lot of rain and flooding in California as well as Arizona, Utah and Colorado. Rare, the last one was about four or five years ago. They die out before hitting the California coast because the water is deep and cold and cold water kills hurricanes. So the key is if it would jump Baja and into the Gulf of California.
I remember that storm, it hung in the area for a very long time and rained and rained. We went to Colorado during the storm and it was muggy the whole time and the whole desert out here was standing water between Needles and Barstow from constant rain.
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/releases2005/jan05/noaa05-r501.html
1858 HURRICANE STRUCK SAN DIEGO, SAY RESEARCH METEOROLOGISTS
Most hurricanes affect the United States’ East Coast, but the West Coast is also vulnerable, as shown by an 1858 tropical cyclone that brought hurricane-force winds to San Diego. The historical data and contemporary analysis of this event were presented today by a NOAA scientist at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in San Diego, Calif. NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is an agency of the U.S. Department of Commerce.
“On October 2, 1858, estimated sustained hurricane force winds produced by a tropical cyclone located a short distance offshore were felt in San Diego,” said Christopher Landsea, the co-author of a paper on the 1858 hurricane and a hurricane researcher at NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division at the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami, Fla. “Extensive damage was done in the city and was described as the severest gale ever felt to that date, nor has it been matched or exceeded in severity since.”
Landsea and the lead author, Michael Chenoweth, an independent scholar, published their paper in the November 2004 edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
“For years, meteorologists had heard rumors about a San Diego hurricane, but there was not any solid evidence easily found,” said Landsea. “But Mike found newspaper accounts of the hurricane and its damaging effects as well as a first-hand meteorological observations by an Army surgeon named James Mulholland who was stationed at the New San Diego fort in 1858.”
Articles from San Francisco’s Daily Alta California and the Los Angeles Star are the only ones that survive, but the Alta carried articles from other newspapers, including the San Diego Herald.
One such account begins: “One of the most terrific and violent hurricanes that has ever been noticed by the inhabitants of our quiet city, visited us on Saturday, the 2nd at daylight.” Reports were made of gradually increasing winds, “ominous-looking clouds,” and “impenetrable clouds of dust and sand,” until about 1 p.m., when “it came along in a perfect hurricane, tearing down houses and everything in its way.”
As with Atlantic hurricanes, the conditions were right. Coral evidence suggests an El Niño event may have occurred that year, which would have kept ocean waters warmer than usual near California. Warmer waters and a conducive atmosphere allowed the hurricane to sustain Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Category 1 intensity (wind speed of 72-95 mph) as far north as southern California. Available evidence suggests that the hurricane tracked just offshore from San Diego, without the eye coming inland, but close enough to produce damaging winds along the entire coast from San Diego to Long Beach.
The hurricane force winds at San Diego are the first and only documented instance of winds of this strength from a tropical cyclone in the recorded history of the state, Landsea and Chenoweth wrote.
Landsea, the developer of the Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project, which looks at hurricanes and revises their meteorological statistics when new data are available, notes that if a hurricane similar to the 1858 storm hit San Diego today, damage from such a storm could likely reach several hundred million dollars.
“But what this also tells us is that a hurricane has directly affected southern California in recorded history and we should remember that if the conditions are right, the area could get hit again,” Landsea said. “Mike and I hope that emergency managers, residents of the area, business owners, the insurance industry, and decision-makers be made aware of this possibility, as most in southern California may think they are completely safe from hurricanes because they are on the Pacific coast instead of the Atlantic.”
NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through research to better understand atmospheric and climate variability and to manage wisely our nation's coastal and marine resources.
Nope
yep I just actually finished reading that....
Interesting stuff...
It was only going to mess with furry foreigners, so it was hosed from the get-go.
Actually this happened a few years ago. The storm came up the Gulf of Calfornia and into the Colorado River area. By this time it was a tropical depression but the desert areas got quite abit of rain. There was a lot of talk that it could strike more towards the coastal areas but in did not. I was preparing for the heavy rain.
We can certainly use the rain, the lake is down because more water is being drawn down this summer than usual for watering crops in the desert and the upper Colorado would benefit greatly, though they would probably prefer heavy snow to heavy rain.
Bump! Hurricane off Mexico now Category 4! John is offshore but its reach is broad and it's still growing. Hopefully it will head on out to sea.
Hurricane John Strengthens to Category 4
By EDUARDO VERDUGO
Associated Press Writer
PUERTO VALLARTA, Mexico (AP) -- Hurricane John strengthened into a dangerous, Category 4 storm Wednesday and forecasters predicted its center would come closer to land during its march up Mexico's Pacific coast, where its outer bands already were lashing tourist resorts with heavy winds and rain.
The hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 135 mph, and stronger gusts capable of ripping roofs off buildings and causing storm surges of up to 18 feet above normal.
John was not expected to affect the United States, but a hurricane warning covered a more than 300-mile stretch of the Mexican coastline from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, the southwestern tip of the bay that holds Puerto Vallarta.
The area south of Lazaro Cardenas to Acapulco was under a tropical storm warning, including the resort of Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo. Lazaro Cardenas already was being hit with tropical storm-force winds.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said hurricane-force winds were likely to begin raking beaches south of Puerto Vallarta late Wednesday, then come close to hitting land early Thursday. The storm would then nick Los Cabos at the tip of the Baja California Peninsula on Friday before heading out to sea.
The Mexican army and emergency services were on alert along the coast, and public schools were canceled in Acapulco and surrounding communities.
In the resort cities of Ixtapa and Zijuatanejo, authorities closed the port to small ocean craft while city officials set up temporary shelters in case the storm were to worsen in the area. Some students decided to leave school early before any potential flooding.
Light rain fell in Ixtapa, about three hours up the coast from Acapulco. At the five-star Emporio Hotel, receptionist David Gonzalez said the hotel had received only minor warnings of rising tides, and said none of the hotel's 92 guests had indicated an early departure.
Pedro Ochoa, reception clerk at the four-star Posada Real Ixtapa Hotel, said neither staff nor guests were making any special preparations for the storm because "we were advised that it was headed elsewhere."
"It's barely raining and there aren't even any winds to speak of," Ochoa said.
Authorities warned residents of low-lying areas to be on alert and urged deep-sea fishing expeditions to return to port in Acapulco. But the airport was still open, and there were few signs of preparation for the hurricane.
Forecasters warned the hurricane could dump up to 8 inches of rain along some of Mexico's southern coast, causing landslides or flooding. Dozens of communities were on alert, but no major problems had been reported.
The center of the hurricane was about 95 miles south of the Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico's deepest port, and was moving to the northwest at 12 mph. But so far, damaging winds have remained just offshore.
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http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/H/HURRICANE_JOHN?SITE=7219&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2006-08-30-10-31-35
How did they jump from E rnesto to J ohn?
West coast
Do west coast hurricanes have a different naming system?
Probably because it's off the coast of Baja. The weather channel isn't even paying much attention to it. Most of them usually head on out to sea, but IF it turns east into Mexico, it could be devastating.
Yes. They have a different list of names. And, if they go west of the Timeline then they become Typhoons.
It's a biggun that's for sure. It looks like it will hit Baja. At least now it looks that way.
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