Posted on 08/29/2006 9:19:00 AM PDT by meandog
If Allen walked into re-election, then he'd be fine. But anything but a big win is going to mean Allen is seen as weakened by this. If he walked into re-election then talk would be about 2008. If he barely squeaks through, the story will be "Why should anyone vote for him if he only barely won in his home state?"
I'm the first to say I don't know much about Allen and haven't been too impressed with what I've seen. Again, that's not a lot, but it's more than the average voter has seen, and they don't seem all that impressed, either. He's got a lot of work ahead of him if he's going to get his campaign rolling. You know as well as I how important perception is, and a struggling senator who barely got re-elected (or even had trouble when he should have walked into it like HRC) is going to be seen as damaged goods. If anything, his recent troubles mean some conservatives considering running will be emboldened--which in the end is a good thing, IMHO.
Actually that poll was roughly over the same time period. During the same time frame Rasmussen showed a 5 pt. lead for Allen, and SurveyUSA had him up by three.
Remember that this is the same outfit that in 2004 predicted on Election Day that Kerry would get 311 Electoral Votes and that he would take Virginia. Bush won by almost nine points.
For more, here's what a "friend" of mine has to say. The Poll.
I need to keep this on file, but I'm doing it from memory.
We took the State Senate I believe in 1995. It may have been 1997 with Lt. Governor John Hager breaking the tie for the Republicans.
We took the House of Delegates after Jim Gilmore won in 1997. He appointed a long time Dem Delegate to an agency position. A Republican won the special election.
You are also correct (up thread) that in the last 10 Gubernatorial elections it is a tie 5 Republicans, 5 Democrats.
Note that when (RINO Father-in-law of Tim Kaine) was elected in 1969 he was the first Republican elected Governor of Virginia since Reconstruction.
Also note that the Governor just before Holton was Mills Godwin, as a Democrat. After Holton, Godwin ran and won as a Republican. Prior to that Democrats in Virginia were still fairly conservative.
As for the last two Governor's races, we've discussed this ad nauseum. Both Earley in '01 and Kilgore in '05 ran miserably horrible campaigns. But note.
2001
Governor - Mark Warner - D
Lt. Governor - Tim Kaine - D
Attorney General - Jerry Kilgore - R (Kilgore was the top vote getter that year)
2005
Governor - Tim Kaine - D
Lt. Governor - Bill Bolling - R
Attorney General - Bob McDonnell - R
So, although some people never see it, we actually picked up a statewide seat in 05.
Allen will win in November. But it will be closer than initially thought.
I don't care who people are supporting in 2008. We need to get Allen back to the Senate.
I wish some of our "friends" would shut the freep up.
It corrects a great deal of your misinformation.
Note that when (RINO Father-in-law of Tim Kaine) was elected in 1969 he was the first Republican elected Governor of Virginia since Reconstruction.
should read:
Note that when (RINO Father-in-law of Tim Kaine) Linwood Holton was elected in 1969 he was the first Republican elected Governor of Virginia since Reconstruction.
>I've seen a LOT more campaign material for Webb than Allen. Webb has had people handing out stuff at the metro station.<
A while back I was poking around Craigslist (yeah, I know, I was slumming) and I found a Move-on.org solicitation for jobs campaigning in Virginia. Webb's got some powerful backers. The Dems are scared to death of George Allen.
Heh heh.
I hope you don't seriously believe #5.
And we've already established you know little about which you spout, so I won't bother addressing your silly claim re: #3.
'97? Didn't realize it was that long ago. Thanks.
Well, to tell you the truth, it was a tossup for me between Allen and Webb...but, because I ran in to you and your nasty retorts today, you can count on me canceling out your vote, at least!
I've been saying that since the day after election day in 2004..........
If by nasty retorts you mean correcting your ridiculous garbage, then you may call me "Mr. Nasty!"
Not to worry.........I've yet to an encounter a Democrat friend that plans on voting for Webb.......they all plan on voting for Allen. But even just the votes from my household take care of yours........
I'll see those votes and raise you three more.
I'm really, REALLY sorry. [sob] I pushed away a guaranteed constantly-griping-about-the-GOP-and-specifically-Allen-but-really-he-was-seriously-considering-Allen vote. Oh, woe is us!!
ROFL!!!!!
There are even Dems in Delaware that are laughing at Webb and the media frenzy over this gaffe.....remember, they all have to contend with biden and his idiocy.
This non-story has prodded me to request an Allen for Senate bumper sticker. Hadn't bothered prior to the hysteria. :-)
Two "Veterans for Allen" bumper stickers coming to me via snail mail! :-)
Webb bio: Secretary of the Navy (under Reagan)
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Reagan)
Navy Cross
Silver Star
2 Bronze Stars
2 Purple Hearts
Author of six best sellers...
U.S. Naval Academy grad (Marine Corps officer)
Georgetown Law
Allen bio: Loud Senate "chickenhawk" whose only uniform was as U.Va. q.b. (record 5-23 as starter)...
Oh, and lucky son of famed Redskin Coach George Allen
Veterans for whom?
Didn't think so.
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