The war's surprises

In its second Lebanon war, Israel was surprised by Hezbollah's anti-tank weapons and the way they used them. The Israel Defense Forces was similarly surprised on the Egyptian front in the Yom Kippur War. At the time, we knew the Arab armies had Russian-made Sagger anti-tank guided missiles, but we did not understand the significance of the mass deployment of these missiles nor how it would affect the IDF's Armored Corps. On the first night of the war, the IDF lost 150 tanks.

This is what happened in the war against Hezbollah. We knew the organization had advanced anti-tank rockets; the IDF's Military Intelligence even acquired one. We also understood that Hezbollah was positioning anti-tank units; however, we failed to understand the significance of the mass deployment of these weapons.

The result: Anti-tank weapons caused most of the IDF casualties in the war - nearly all the Armored Corps' casualties and many from the infantry units. More infantry soldiers were killed by anti-tank weapons than in hand-to-hand combat. Many of the infantry soldiers who lost their lives because of anti-tank weapons entered houses in the villages; the rockets penetrated the walls, killing them.

Missiles have always surprised the IDF. A few months after the June 1967 Six-Day War, Israel was surprised by a Russian-made "Styx" SS-N-2C missile that sank an Israel Navy destroyer, the INS Eilat, causing dozens of crew to drown. The Israel Navy and the Rafael Armament Development Authority probed the problem, arriving at a solution that helped the navy win the Yom Kippur War despite the dozens of similar missiles that were fired at its ships.

"At the time, we knew the Arab armies had Russian-made Sagger anti-tank guided missiles, but we did not understand the significance of the mass deployment of these missiles nor how it would affect the IDF's Armored Corps. On the first night of the war, the IDF lost 150 tanks."

That was 150 IDF tanks killed with crew and all. No one expected those wire guided Sagger missiles to be used in such massive numbers. The terrain was open and IDF tanks were exposed to massive numbers of these Sagger missiles firing from pre battle prepared sites. Surviving IDF tanks were seen with 15 to 20 Sagger missile guidance wires draped across them from Sagger missile near misses. It wasn't just luck that prevented the IDF from losing more tanks in that battle; it was only because Egyptian Sagger gunners were so poorly trained.

Those Soviet Saggers cost about $3,000 each, if I remember right, and those gunners didn't get any practice shots in training. It was "on the job" training all the way for them.

It was then that I made the prediction that if anti-armor weapons development continued at the current rate, tanks would go the way of the horse cavalry before the end of the Twentieth Century. I was wrong, but maybe not by much. The day is rapidly approaching when, if a tank shows its face on the battlefield, it will be instantly killed.

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