TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[abb]

Time for the DriveBy Media to break out the Prozac...

[standingfirm]

Last nite, Joe Bastardi on Fox said that we may have to deal w/Ernesto into next week as it skirts up the east coast. Looks like that's right.

[dirtboy]

If the track shifts just 50 miles more to the east, there will be no US landfall. And for there to be a US landfall, the storm has to shift WNW when it is currently tracking NNW.

[RDTF]

Thanks dear

[threeleftsmakearight]

"...the trend for this storm all along has been east."

Dashing the hopes of Democrats everywhere, who were hoping for another Katrina.

If Bush and his weather machine caused all the hurricanes last year, I wonder what's up this year.
Is his machine broken?
Is the evil Karl Rove busy finding news ways to suppress votes in key elections?
Are there not military maneuvers in the Caribbean this year warming the waters?
Has God decided not to punish Bush this year for the Iraq war?

[shield]

Joe Bastardi is very seldom right.

[abb]

Joe Bastardi is very seldom right.

But he's never, ever in doubt...

[dirtboy]

Last nite, Joe Bastardi on Fox said that we may have to deal w/Ernesto into next week as it skirts up the east coast. Looks like that's right.

If the track trend continues, it'll stay off the coast. But folks in the Outer Banks should still start thinking about any hurricane preps, just in case.

[RDTF]

please don't hijack this thread into a Bastardi bashing. It really gets old fast.

[The South Texan]

"Joe Bastardi is very seldom right."

Not anymore wrong than the average Met. I've seen him nail things to the "T" and miss big time. But I value his take. Back in 2004 when we had the Christmas snow storm to remember here in South Texas (it snowed over a foot in some places), he was calling for it a week out when the NWS and the local Mets were calling for a cool, but not cold or wet Christmas.

[bwteim]

"Last nite, Joe Bastardi on Fox said that we may have to deal w/Ernesto into next week as it skirts up the east coast. Looks like that's right."

JB has detractors and praisers - I'm neutral on him, how's that for waffling?

This is what I took away from what I heard him say last night on Fox: there was a cone, it basically covered the state of Florida, and it could go west or all the way right or east.

And, FWIW, the operative word, if that is a quote from Joe B, is "may".

[No Blue States]

I hope Im not going too far out on a limb when I say Ernie
is quickly becoming a non threat imo.

Beneficial rain and some wind gusts..
On the present forecasted track there is little water to even rebuild whats left of the storm after leaving Cuba.

If in FL I would be greatly relieved at this point.

[standingfirm]

I had no idea there were such strong feelings out there about Joe Bastardi! Holy cow.

[tiredoflaundry]

If in FL I would be greatly relieved at this point.

I'm not letting my guard down yet!

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 28, 2006

...Ernesto moving over eastern Cuba...threat of heavy rains and
flooding continues...


at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the Hurricane Watch has been extended
along the Florida East Coast to New Smyrna Beach and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee. Also...the government
of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Bimini islands
and Grand Bahama Island.


A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from New Smyrna Beach southward
on the Florida East Coast...and from south of Chokoloskee southward
along the West Coast...for Lake Okeechobee...and for all of the
Florida Keys...from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane
Watch is also in effect for Andros Island...the biminis...and Grand
Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.


Hurricane warnings may be required for portions of the Hurricane
Watch areas later today.


At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of Cuba has changed the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban
provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...Granma... Holguin...
Las Tunas...and Camaguey.


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ragged Island and great
Exuma in the central Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.


Interests elsewhere in the central and northwestern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 20.3 north...longitude 75.7 west or about 35
miles... 55 km...west-northwest of Guantanamo Cuba.

Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center will continue to move over eastern Cuba
today and possibly emerge off the north coast of Cuba tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph...65
km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely as
Ernesto moves over land today...but re-strengthening is expected
when the center moves over the waters to the north of Cuba.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts
of up to 20 inches...are expected over portions of Hispaniola and
central and eastern Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
are possible over the southern Bahamas.


Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...20.3 N...75.7 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 16

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 28, 2006

Ernesto made landfall on the southeastern Cuban coast near playa
cazonal...just west of Guantanamo...around 1200 UTC. The center is
now moving over extreme eastern Cuba...where there is mountainous
terrain. Some more weakening is likely before the center moves
back over water to the north of Cuba. Once the center emerges over
water...re-strengthening is likely in a favorable upper-level
environment of weak northeasterly shear. The official intensity
forecast is generally above the SHIPS guidance and close to the
latest GFDL forecast...and calls for a category 1 hurricane
approaching southeastern Florida. However it should be noted that
there is limited skill in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity.

Since the center is currently difficult to locate...the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 325/9. A small upper-level low to
the north-northwest of Ernesto may be imparting some northward
component to the tropical cyclone's motion. Dynamical models
indicate that the upper low will move westward and weaken. This
should result in a leftward Bend of the track in the near term.
Global models indicate that the mid-tropospheric high pressure
system over the southeastern United States will shift
east-southeastward during the next couple of days as a trough moves
in from the northwest. This would result in a northward turn of
Ernesto. The official forecast track has been nudged just slightly
eastward from the previous one...in good agreement with the current
consensus of the dynamical track models.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward over Florida and the
northwestern Bahamas. Hurricane warnings may be required for
portions of these areas later today.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 28/1500z 20.3n 75.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 29/0000z 21.5n 76.8w 35 kt
24hr VT 29/1200z 22.9n 78.5w 45 kt
36hr VT 30/0000z 24.6n 80.0w 55 kt
48hr VT 30/1200z 26.6n 80.4w 70 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/1200z 31.0n 80.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 01/1200z 34.0n 77.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 02/1200z 36.0n 75.0w 70 kt


$$
forecaster Pasch

[IYAAYAS]

Cool, I get to make my first "checking in from Ft Lauderdale" post of the season.

My gut tells me this will continue to shift East and not make landfall anywhere. Of course I will prepare like a direct hit is guaranteed. My only concern is I have a lot of friends/family out of town and I'll need to do what I can to protect their property/boats/cars.

If this hits close I'll have a very interesting perspective this time. I just moved into a brand new two story townhouse with very thick hurricane windows. From the second story I can see for miles. I look out across a park and I can see all of Ft Lauderdale/Hollywood airport.

I didn't take any "during" pictures last year, this time I will. I'll also try to post some so ya'll can see developments in real time :)

[SE Mom]

This is...hilarious:)

A completely bi-polar storm!

[dirtboy]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 16

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 28, 2006

Ernesto made landfall on the southeastern Cuban coast near playa cazonal...just west of Guantanamo...around 1200 UTC. The center is now moving over extreme eastern Cuba...where there is mountainous terrain. Some more weakening is likely before the center moves back over water to the north of Cuba. Once the center emerges over water...re-strengthening is likely in a favorable upper-level environment of weak northeasterly shear. The official intensity forecast is generally above the SHIPS guidance and close to the latest GFDL forecast...and calls for a category 1 hurricane approaching southeastern Florida. However it should be noted that there is limited skill in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity. Since the center is currently difficult to locate...the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 325/9. A small upper-level low to the north-northwest of Ernesto may be imparting some northward component to the tropical cyclone's motion. Dynamical models indicate that the upper low will move westward and weaken. This should result in a leftward Bend of the track in the near term. Global models indicate that the mid-tropospheric high pressure system over the southeastern United States will shift east-southeastward during the next couple of days as a trough moves in from the northwest. This would result in a northward turn of Ernesto. The official forecast track has been nudged just slightly eastward from the previous one...in good agreement with the current consensus of the dynamical track models. The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward over Florida and the northwestern Bahamas. Hurricane warnings may be required for portions of these areas later today.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/1500z 20.3n 75.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 29/0000z 21.5n 76.8w 35 kt
24hr VT 29/1200z 22.9n 78.5w 45 kt
36hr VT 30/0000z 24.6n 80.0w 55 kt
48hr VT 30/1200z 26.6n 80.4w 70 kt...inland
72hr VT 31/1200z 31.0n 80.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 01/1200z 34.0n 77.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 02/1200z 36.0n 75.0w 70 kt

$$
forecaster Pasch

-----------

Well, they finally noticed the trough to the north, and the forecast track shifted eastward yet again.

I would only expect small shifts from here on out, but IMO they could be enough to keep Ernesto from a landfall. However, if you are within the 48 hour zone of uncertainty, continue as if there will be a Cat 1 over you within that timeframe.

I also imagine Ernesto will be downgraded to a depression by the 2pm intermediate advisory. I think they were being generous in keeping it a TS for this one.

[NautiNurse]

Cuba landfall just west of Gitmo. Glad for our troops Ernesto wasn't any worse at the time.