TS/Hurricane/TS Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 28 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Florida Governor Jeb Bush ordered a state of emergency in advance of Ernesto's anticipated Florida landfall as a hurricane. During his press briefing, Governor Bush emphasized the need to, "Have your family plan in place. Be prepared to be on your own for 72 hours. I know it sounds like a broken record." Jeb then repeated his message in Spanish.

All of the South Florida peninsula and Keys are under a hurricane watch, and portions of the watch areas may be upgraded to hurricane warnings later today.

NASA is moving Space Shuttle Atlantis from the launch pad back to its protective hangar, with the launch postponed until at least Sept. 7-8.

Hurricane Ernesto was downgraded to Tropical Storm status after battering Haiti and the Dominican Republic all day Sunday. The death toll in Haiti from Ernesto currently stands at 1 person; storm reports from Hispaniola are scarce this morning.

Ernesto has approached the eastern portion of Cuba, where the government issued a hurricane warning for six provinces, tourists were evacuated, and baseball games were played earlier Sunday than originally scheduled.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

Hurricane Ernesto

[Dog Gone]

Never underestimate the power of ignorance or testosterone when the surf is up along a shoreline.

LOL, good point.

Beer + hurricane + surfboard = Darwin Award

[dirtboy]

The movement I see is the trough acting like a mellonballer - scooping the convection off the western side. So now Ernesto is dealing with an adjacent trough, being over land, and interacting with mountains. I don't think it will be completely dissapated, but regeneration will start from a very weak depression instead of a strong tropical storm - and that will make a big difference if Ernesto does end up hitting Florida.

[NautiNurse]

I see you found the new thread, and you still can't resist the immature posts. The adults in the room are not impressed.

[longtermmemmory]

Is Dan rather zooming to be in the storm path?

HOw many Mediots have their rain suits ready to go?


The media is going CRAZY comparing this with Katrina.

CNN did a "are we ready poll"!!!!! (as in WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIEEEEEEEEE!!!!!film at 11)

[abb]

the only convection it's got now is that part over the windward passage...

[dirtboy]

Is Dan rather zooming to be in the storm path?

Methinks Dan caught one too many 2x4s in the head during his hurricane glory years.

[dirtboy]

And the center went in just west of Gitmo. Center's now exposed.

[ReignOfError]

I'm glad she's in a sturdy house, too, because she's stubborn enough she'd probably stay put even if she weren't. I suspect my pop-pop knew the woman he'd married all those years ago and overengineered the house with that in mind. :)

[PogySailor]

TD 11 in the Pacific looks more impressive than Ernesto at this point.

[new yorker 77]

I just enjoy being right.

[usmcobra]

Northbond tolls from the keys to Miramar have been suspended.

[abb]

look at that blob north of the bay of campeche. maybe tx will get some rain after all...

[dirtboy]

We don't need arrogance on these threads. Only blowhards take credit for their guesses, and one can only guess when it comes to hurricanes.

[onyx]

Hiya, DG!

She's not going to grt much of anything!


5-Day Forecast for Grand Cayman
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Chance of Rain

Mon. 20% chance of precipitation Chance of T-storms
Tues. 50% chance of precipitation Chance of T-storms
Wed. 50% chance of precipitation Chance of T-storms
Thur. 50% chance of precipitation Chance of T-storms
Fri. 40% chance of precipitation

[dirtboy]

I'm glad she's in a sturdy house, too,

My dad calls such buildings Third Pig Houses - because the wolf couldn' blow down the third pig's home.

[rodguy911]

HI NN, just coming back from the meteorological thread and they are all over the place with this one. One guy says its going to be nothing more than a thunderstorm another says it could be a cat 3 and stall of NC, another says the eye is already off the cuban coast in the water and beginning to regenerate, I got lost over there.One says it will head west the other says nnw to n,its very confusing.

[onyx]

ARTIST: The Tokens
TITLE: The Lion Sleeps Tonight
Lyrics and Chords


Ee-e-e-um-um-a-weh
Ee-e-e-um-um-a-weh
Wemoweh, wemoweh, wemoweh, wemoweh (4X)

/ G C G D / /
/ G C / G D / :

In the jungle, the mighty jungle
The lion sleeps tonight
In the jungle, the quiet jungle
The lion sleeps tonight

/ G C / G D / :

{Refrain}
Ee-e-e-um-um-a-weh
Wemoweh, wemoweh, wemoweh, wemoweh (2X)
Ee-e-e-um-um-a-weh
Wemoweh, wemoweh, wemoweh, wemoweh (2X)

Near the village, the peaceful village
The lion sleeps tonight
Near the village, the quiet village
The lion sleeps tonight

[new yorker 77]

I didn't guess.

I saw the storm smacking into Haiti and Cuba.

I saw the pressure system to the west holding its' position.

A lot of 'could have', 'would have' and 'might just' anecdotes coming from the news arena.

I simply used my eyes and my brain to figure out that this storm was going to bounce off Haiti and Cuba like ping pong ball and never meander into the Gulf.

[dirtboy]

Dadgumit, I finally got that song out of my head, and you had to let it crawl back in.

[onyx]

LOL -- I can arrange to post it for your listening enojoyment...lol.