Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

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Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

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Additional Resources:

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Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[Dog Gone]

Dang, there's no getting away from the weather! Here's the latest from Accuweather for what it's worth:

The latest satellite imagery is showing thunderstorms becoming more numerous and more symmetrical about Ernesto's center. The southwesterly upper-level winds that have been causing wind shear are lessening as clouds on satellite imagery between the upper-level low near Honduras and Ernesto are showing signs of less movement to the northeast and slowly drifting to the north. Deep warm waters are concentrated in the northwestern Caribbean, and Ernesto should traverse these waters over the next day or two which should also promote strengthening. Although possible interaction with the south coast of Haiti and the island of Jamaica may slow the strengthening somewhat, Ernesto could still become a major hurricane once it reaches parts of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Ernesto will cause life-threatening flooding rains and gusty winds across western Hispaniola and Jamaica Sunday and Sunday night, and these conditions will shift into the eastern half of Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Ernesto should move across Cuba by Tuesday, perhaps maintaining hurricane strength. Ernesto, intensifying even more as it refuels with warm Gulf of Mexico waters, could spread some very heavy rain northward into Florida. Offshore waters could become very rough with waves exceeding 10 feet. We expect that high pressure will build southeastward across the southeastern United States Sunday through Wednesday. This high could have a big influence on the direction and strength of Ernesto around midweek. All interests from Louisiana to the Carolinas should monitor the developments of Ernesto.

[nwctwx]

...Ernesto moving near the southwest peninsula of Haiti...may have
weakened but bringing torrential rains to Haiti and the Dominican
Republic...

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate
that Ernesto may have weakened below hurricane strength...and if
this is confirmed the system will be downgraded to a tropical storm
on the next advisory. Strengthening is not likely until the center
moves away from the mountainous southwestern peninsula of Haiti.

[dogbyte12]

Haiti is going to be hurting really badly after this storm. They are such a freaking mess to begin with, that it seems cruel to add insult to their injury. It reminds me of why 6.5 earthquakes in California just do some structural damage, but in Iran they kill thousands of people. Haiti will have hundreds or thousands dead from the flooding today.

[nwctwx]

After 36-48 hours, we still can't manage to get a decent center. First data shows pretty low winds.

[dirtboy]

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that Ernesto may have weakened below hurricane strength...and if this is confirmed the system will be downgraded to a tropical storm on the next advisory.

That's an understatement, unless I'm missing something:

Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35 Knots (40.25 MPH)

If that holds, Ernesto is barely at tropical storm strength.

[debg]

Thanks for mentioning ice. I just cranked up the icemaker and put some water bottles in there. I might just buy some malted milkballs, or maybe chocolate covered almonds. :)

[Dog Gone]

Well, I feel your pain. On the other hand, the 30 inches of rain we had in July in Hardin County, Texas, really put a hurt on moving drilling rigs and drilling holes for seismic exploration.

So, if you want some water, just come down here and gittit. We'll give to y'all fer free.

[numberonepal]

Great....I finally get a hurricane named after me, and it is in Spanish.

Would it make you feel any better if it's also Italian? It's how all my friends in Italy refer to me.

[varina davis]

Hurricane Local Statement for ERNESTO

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 110 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS BEGINNING 100 PM TODAY... ...NO HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME...

...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS... THERE ARE NO HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ANY PORTION OF THE KEYS AT THIS TIME...SINCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE ISSUED WHEN TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION... AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST...OR ABOUT 690 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 997 MB...OR 29.44 INCHES OF MERCURY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF ALL VISITORS AND NON-RESIDENTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BEGINNING AT 100 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A LOCAL STATE OF EMERGENCY HAS BEEN DECLARED BY MONROE COUNTY AT NOON TODAY. THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER WILL BE ACTIVATED AT LEVEL ONE AT 600 AM MONDAY. ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSE THIS AFTERNOON. AT 600 AM MONDAY...AN EVACUATION FOR ALL SPECIAL NEEDS RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. AT 1000 AM MONDAY...AN EVACUATION FOR ALL MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL GO IN EFFECT. TOLLS ARE BEING LIFTED ON CARD SOUND ROAD THIS AFTERNOON. THE MONROE COUNTY SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1000 AM MONDAY.

...WINDS... WINDS WILL REMAIN SAFE FOR TRAVEL FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE KEYS POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT HURRICANE ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY WEST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 230 PM EDT.

[nwctwx]

Hispaniola is mean. Looks like the center got just close enough to get shredded.

[NautiNurse]

Honestly, I cried when I hauled that truckload of supplies to the folks in Arcadia. I cried because Hurricane Charley was one small turn, and one radar blip away from people bringing truckloads of relief supplies to our area. Been there, done that. It's awful being on the receving end of the storm and the supplies.

[dirtboy]

Although possible interaction with the south coast of Haiti and the island of Jamaica may slow the strengthening somewhat,

Good ol' Accuweather. The mountains of Haiti just ain't slowing the strengthening somewhat. The latest Hurricane Hunter vortex found pressure up to 1007 mb and max surface winds at just over 40mph. Maybe they're missing the strongest winds, but they would have to fly into the mountains of Haiti to reach the NE sector, and you know they ain't gonna do that.

[CFC__VRWC]

Yikes! They make landfall right around Sarasota-Bradenton, with Cat 1 winds spreading all way through Tampa Bay, with Cat 2 to 3 winds at Sanibel and Cape Coral, near Ft. Myers. Davis Island in Tampa Bay takes a direct hit on that path as well - very bad news if true, given the storm surge piling into Tampa Bay ahead of Ernesto.

[Dog Gone]

In sort of plain english, it means this:

Storm ERNESTO: Observed by AF #302
Storm #05 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #05: 06
Date/Time of Recon Report: August 27, 2006 17:10:20 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 17 ° 45 ' N 073 ° 52 ' W (17.75° N  73.87° W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 3143 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 35 Knots (40.25 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 015 Nautical Miles (17.25 miles) From Center At Bearing 135°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 030 Knots (34.5 MPH) From 186°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 075 Nautical Miles (86.25 Miles) From Center At Bearing 136°
Minimum Pressure: extrap 1007 Millibars (29.735 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 10°C (50°F) / 3046 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 14°C (57.2°F) / 3052 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 3°C (37.4°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: NA
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: NA
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 10 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 30 KT SE Quadrant at 16:49:20 Z
2: SFC CNTR 191 / 21 NM FROM Flight Level CNTR
3: SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
4: RADAR BANDING EVIDENT

[NautiNurse]

Here's the translation :o)

Local Hurricane Statement

Expires 2:30 PM EDT on August 27, 2006 Statement as of 1:10 PM EDT on August 27, 2006 ... Mandatory evacuation of all visitors and non-residents beginning    100 PM today... ... No hurricane watches or warnings in effect at this time... ... Areas affected... this statement is specific to the Florida Keys of Monroe County... including the Dry Tortugas. ... Watches/warnings... there are no hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings in effect for any portion of the Keys at this time... since tropical storm and hurricane watches are issued when tropical storm or hurricane force winds are expected to begin generally within 36 hours. ... Storm information... at 1100 am EDT... the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 17.6 north... longitude 73.7 west... or about 690 miles southeast of Key West. Hurricane Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph... and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph... with higher gusts. Ernesto is a category one on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast today and tonight... and Ernesto could become a category 2 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure was estimated at 997 mb... or 29.44 inches of Mercury. ... Precautionary/preparedness actions... Monroe County emergency management has ordered a mandatory evacuation of all visitors and non-residents in the Florida Keys beginning at 100 PM this afternoon. A local state of emergency has been declared by Monroe County at noon today. The emergency operations center will be activated at level one at 600 am Monday. All County and state Parks are encouraged to close this afternoon. At 600 am Monday... an evacuation for all special needs residents will go in effect. At 1000 am Monday... an evacuation for all Mobile home residents will go in effect. Tolls are being lifted on Card Sound Road this afternoon. The Monroe County shelters will open at 1000 am Monday. ... Winds... winds will remain safe for travel for high profile vehicles through Monday evening. Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the Keys possibly as early as Tuesday morning. Hurricane force winds will be possible late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. ... Next update... the next Hurricane Ernesto local statement from the National Weather Service office in Key West will be issued around 230 PM EDT.

[dirtboy]

At this point, looking at the sat photos, the two or three possible locations for the center are all over southern Haiti. Assuming it has a center any longer.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Don't forget the KFC ;0)

[dirtboy]

So they found the max winds over the SE quadrant. Normally they would be in the NE quadrant, but that's over the mountains. Haiti is putting a hurtin' on Ernesto. Too bad some folks there are gonna be hurtin' themselves in the process.

[CFC__VRWC]

Arcadia and it's outlying areas are still reeling from Charley, even two years later. That whole area was dirt poor to begin with, and Charley just devastated them. About 20 percent of the citrus trees down there were blown away. That means five years at a minimum before fruit production can even begin to return to normal.

Whenever I started feeling sorry for myself after Charley, I just thought about Punta Gorda, Arcadia and Wauchula, and that set my head right real quick.

[NautiNurse]

If Ernesto makes landfall south of Tampa Bay, that would minimize the potential for storm surge, as long as the eye remains S and/or E of the bay.