Hurricane Ernesto

NWS/NHC ^ | 27 August 2006 | NHC

[NautiNurse]

Ernesto is rapidly intensifying to near hurricane strength, with heavy rains and flooding possible over much of Hispaniola. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the Florida Keys later today.

Public Advisories Updated every three hours.

Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours

Three Day Tracking Map

Ernesto Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 3 & 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data Caribbean Sea

Buoy Data Florida & Eastern GOM

Hurricane Model Tracks

Storm Surge graphic

Satellite Images

Visible Satellite Still Image

IR Image

WV Image

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Tropical Storm Ernesto I

[Dog Gone]

Just export your "favorites" to a floppy or CD and then import them on the new computer. It's really very easy.

[Sam Cree]

Well, let's hope they do their worst, even it that won't be lethal.

[nwctwx]

That's a lot of land to cross with the 11am advisory. If close, probably enough to put a major dent in whatever comes ashore in Cuba.

[dirtboy]

Some of those mountains go to 6,500 feet. It's enough to disrupt the circulation a fair amount, especially in conjunction with a track up the spine of Cuba.

[SouthTexas]

Thanks, will try that.

[MikefromOhio]

Well let's hope this thing keeps adjusting northward a bit....

[SouthTexas]

Another American attack on Cuba! The Rovian weather machine is in high gear.

[who knows what evil?]

I'm gonna go outside and draw the gulf coast with corn and see where my rooster Southern Confederacy starts pick'in. That will probably be as accurate as any other model this far out, and with Cuba in play.

My money is on your rooster. :-)

[Paulus Invictus]

Is Ernesto just another Latin American illegal entering our space? Are we now giving hurricanes Spanish names as a PC move? Aztlan is near and we are asleep!

[No Blue States]

Im suprised the NHC doesnt seem to be factoring in the Cuba weakening factor...they have Ernie coming to Cuba as a possible 2(8 am advisory)..trailing comepletely across without ever losing hurricane status on the 3 day cone graphic.

It looks disorganised on the radars.

[Dog Gone]

If it tracks along the spine of Cuba for 300 miles, it definitely will put a dent into the storm. It would be luck to emerge as even a strong tropical storm.

But the mountains of eastern Cuba are seriously overrated.

[Dog Gone]

Is Ernesto just another Latin American illegal entering our space? Are we now giving hurricanes Spanish names as a PC move? Aztlan is near and we are asleep!

I hope you were making a joke.

[F.J. Mitchell]

Could be, There's been so many I can't remember them all.

[dirtboy]

It looks disorganised on the radars.

It also looks on the latest sat photos that it is still shifting northward.

[dirtboy]

Isabel was a very different story - classic Cape Verde at the start, and a beeline for NC after that.

[leilani]

Did you forget a sarcasm tag or maybe you haven't followed hurricanes very much? This is at least Ernesto's fourth appearance since they started naming 'em after men click here for names over the years. You'll notice lots of french names as well, lol!

[Dog Gone]

A recon flight is there now, so we should have some better data in a half hour or so.

It's hard for me to tell visually what it's doing with all the interaction from Hispanola.

I wonder what's happening on that island. It shouldn't be too bad based on storm intensity, but since the mountainsides have been deforested, it doesn't take much for a mudslide to wipe out large areas.

[nwctwx]

I don't think it's a certainty it will pass over that length of Cuba. There are many factors still that argue for a track further to the west. The storm just kept jumping north and northeast the past day or so, and it has thrown everything off to some degree.

I really wouldn't be surprised to see it end up jogging more to the west at any time now.

It is still confusing, since as their track is placed, it would be quite difficult for the storm to remain a hurricane over land for so long.

[brytlea]

We are off as we speak. Darn. I'm pretty well prepared but do need gas in my car and water. Grrrr....
susie

[GottaLuvAkitas1]

"Isabel was a very different story - classic Cape Verde at the start, and a beeline for NC after that"

Thank you for the photo. You are Mr. Johnny On The Spot today. Good job.

Now I have to figure out which storm it reminds me of (Ivan maybe).