Novak's record has been mixed. He underestimated GOP strength in '94, saying they would gain 46 seats. That time I was glad he was wrong. But I remember way back to 1984 when he was on McLaughlin saying the Repubs would gain 22-25 in the coming Reagan landslide. They took only 14. Still, Novak was closer in his estimates than the other prognosticators were. So I don't reject his projection completely. It does sound a bit optimistic for the Dems though.
I believe we will lose our majority in the house. And it will be a complete circus, including impeachment proceedings, which will then basically hand the GOP the presidency in 2008.
I remember him saying that on Meet the Press two months before the Republican takeover of Congress. He was one of the few people at the time who predicted that the Republicans would actually take over the House. Most politcal pundits at the time predicted that the Republicans would have a "working majority", meaning that they would have to pick up votes from boll weevil Democrats to get a majority on bills.
So Novak's prediction still scares me.