Even post-Katrina, unless the GOP can settle on one VERY charismatic candidate, that one is still a very longshot. The RATS should hold it, even if Jefferson is indicted(which I expect to happen shortly after the election).
As for the rest of Novak's predictions, I think he's been to one too many parties on the DC Cocktail Circuit. Like LS, I think the GOP will pick up seats in the House and at least hold their ground in the Senate(Santorum's recent gains along with Stabenow and Cantwell's slide in the polls leave me thinking they could pick up at least one seat).