Lopez Obrador claims his "convention" can legally name him President-Elect of Mexico (Translation)

Le Monde ^ | August 24, 2006 | Jean-Michel Caroit ( translated by self )

[The Old Hoosier]

If he keeps it up much longer, he should be tried for treason.

[StJacques]

Okay, this is a ping on the deliberations of the Electoral Tribunal in Mexico City, which is now in session and is very close to finalizing the challenges to the vote in the presidential election in Calderon's favor.

There is an overview article up on the El Universal web site at:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/371461.html

which says simply that "TEPJF gives vent to complaints, Calderon maintains advantage." It goes on to say that the tribunal is resolving all 375 appeals of incomformity today and I'm going to translate three paragraphs which I think sums it all up:

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. . . The upper chamber of the Electoral Tribunal of the Judicial Power of the Federation today resolved appeals of incomformity, but they did not warn of generalized irregularities, with the sole exception that they determined null votes in specific precincts, which were of a minor number. . . .

. . . Nevertheless, it approved the projected resolution, as apparent in the expositions of the magistrates, it concludes that the recount carried out with judicial diligence did not change the first (Felipe Calderon) and second (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador) places of the presidential election. . . .

. . . The tribunal made it clear that the demands of the [For the Good of All] coalition which they would have to view as possibly annulling the election, will be resolved in the release of its follow-up opinion, which will have to happen no later than the 6th of September.

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So the end result of all that is that the recount doesn't change the order of 1st and 2nd place and, having resolved the vote count, the tribunal will then go on to its second task, which is to declare the election valid. No one seems to be predicting they will annul the election given the general tone of the remarks of the judges, especially that phrase in the first paragraph which says that "they did not warn of generalized irregularities."

There is also a second article on this session at:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/371439.html

which says that one magistrate of the tribunal has put a resolution forth for the tribunal's consideration to annul a total of 143 precincts, which includes some challenged by AMLO and others by Calderon and the PAN party. Here is a quote:

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Acting on her authority, the magistrate Bertha Alfonsina Navarro explained that she attended to 54 suits of inconformity in which the PAN party requested the annulment of 433 precincts and they only came [to prove their case] by diverse causes in 30 of the cases, in as much as the For the Good of All coalition demanded the annulment of 1,655 and the tribunal annulled 113, giving as a result the proposal to annul 143 precincts altogether.

According to a report on [the radio program] Monitor MVS, the PAN party would lose 15,825 votes and 16,469 votes [would be lost by] the coalition. . . .

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The PRD is already howling. Its national director, Leonel Cota Montaño, has released a statement saying "the resolution of the TEPJF confirms the imposition of Calderon" as president on Mexico and there are protestors showing up in front of the tribunal's offices.

I'll try to keep an eye on all of this as the day goes on, but I am a little busy with work-related matters so I might not be able to do much more until this evening, when I expect to see something which wraps up the day's proceedings I can post.

[kidd]

Thanks for the translation.

The PRD seems to be following the Kerry model. Calderon should not make the same mistake that Bush made...do not try to "reach across the aisle" to a party that only wishes to see your complete failure. Fortunately, Mexico has significant numbers in a third party...perhaps Calderon can use this to his advatage and marginalize the PRD.

[StJacques]

Okay, another quick update. Final numbers on the annulment of votes have been posted at:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/371505.html

And the numbers are:

Felipe Calderon - 81,080 votes annulled
Lopez Obrador - 76,897 votes annulled

This means that AMLO gained 4,183 votes as a result of all electoral challenges resolved, shaving Calderon's 244,000 vote lead to approximately 240,000. I cite this from memory because the article says that "by agreement with the official numbers" there is a difference of 243,934 votes, but I think that is the "before the adjustment" figure. Either way, it doesn't matter. The counting is over and Calderon is in first place.

Gotta go.

[StJacques]

"Fortunately, Mexico has significant numbers in a third party...perhaps Calderon can use this to his advatage and marginalize the PRD."

It's already been happening kidd. The PRI has come to recognize AMLO and the PRD as a threat and they have been coming together with Calderon and the PAN on a number of issues. Wish I could say more, but I'm a little pressed for time.

[Enterprise]

Yo Obragore: Turn out the lights, the party's over. Bitter luck next time too!

[CedarDave]

I read over the weekend that in an election in southern Mexico the PRI came in second to the PRD by about 6,000 votes and that the PRI has asked that the election be annulled because of fraud. Can't find an article with specifics here on FR so relying on memory.

[conservative in nyc]

These were AMLO's hand-picked precincts to recount, and he gained very little ground.

What percentage of the votes were recounted? In order to make up 240,000 votes, he'd need about 57 times more precincts to be recounted to make up the difference, assuming the same net gain from those precincts. It doesn't sound like this would happen even if they only recounted 2% of the precincts this go round - the math doesn't work.

ObraGore is toast.

[StJacques]

"I read over the weekend that in an election in southern Mexico the PRI came in second to the PRD by about 6,000 votes and that the PRI has asked that the election be annulled because of fraud. Can't find an article with specifics here on FR so relying on memory."

The state is Chiapas, it appears to be a fraudulent election, I expect the election will be either annulled (most likely) or overturned (less likely but still possible) and I'll give you some more data on this later Dave. I'm only stopping in for a brief moment right now. So look for a post from me this evening.

[StJacques]

"What percentage of the votes were recounted?"

I don't know the percentage of votes recounted, but the percentage of casillas recounted was about 9.07%.

[Shuttle Shucker]

In other news, ladies & gents, those Mexican youths who were recently rejected from the college of their choice have now set up a protest camp-out in front of Mexico City's federal Dept. of Education. I kid you not:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/371513.html

It'll be great if and when Mexico finally stops allowing such antidemocratic subversiveness.