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To: Ooh-Ah
"The Iranians have bought 2 vetoes on the Security Council making all these negotiations, AND the UN--as usual, a farce!"

Iranian couldn't buy Russia's and China's votes for a simple reason they can't afford it. [It's like saying that Argentina or Indonesia bought US vote]. I my judgment the picture if Iran as o loose cannon is seriously flawed.
Now Iran is seriously engaged [at least financially] on so many fronts, that even with a significant stretch of imagination it's difficult to believe that oil revenues can cover all.
1. Significant finances go to Iraq. Don't kid yourself filling the void created by removal of Sadam [the void that US refuse to fill because it is afflicted with political-correctness-madness syndrome - a lethal infectious disease transmitted by left-leaning intellectual elites] was pretty expensive, Especially in the face of long-lasting Arab-Persian distrust, and the memory of the bloody Iraq-Iran war.
2. Hezbollah is also quite expensive pet. The toys used against Israel were very costly and you have to remember that a lot of money was spent to buy the support of Shiite population of south Lebanon [hospitals, schools, TV station, pensions for poor and family of martyrs - it's like financing a state without tax revenue]
3. Expensive nuclear program. There is a good reason why authoritarian governments in poor countries don't indulge themselves in this way.
4. France. When 'French youths' entertained themselves by burning cars in French suburbs, I read that one of US ex-diplomat accused Iran and Syria of inciting those events. First I dismissed it, but after France duped Israel and US into ceasefire by promising 'robust military force' to patrol the border I had the second thoughts
5. Iran is certainly engaged in Afghanistan [It have to. By a rule of thumb your neighbors wars cost you a lot of money]
6. Internal situation. Young urban dwellers are getting restive. They won't put up with deteriorating quality of life. Some money have to be spend on them.

If we take into account that Iranian economy is in a shambles [an oil rich country that have to import gasoline!!], we have to wonder how to the hell it can afford this kind of policy???!!
10 posted on 08/24/2006 12:53:35 AM PDT by pppp
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To: pppp; Ooh-Ah

7. Don't forget Iran's continuing financial support to HAMAS, in addition to Hezbollah.
8. Also, the elite and not so elite clergy and their entourage take a significant amount of oil revenue, drug revenue, and so on for themselves and have many business investments/equity and properties mostly in the names of their offsprings and cohorts in all sorts of places around the world.

As for Russia and China: Well, Iran knows that if it were to even dream about threatening either one of those countries, Iran would be a massive crater before IRI goons could blink. Russia and China wouldn't follow the U.N. 'procedures' if their interests were ever to be threatened. IMO, Russia and China don't need to be bought by Iran. They are playing 'the balance of power game' against the U.S. and Iran is one of their pawns.

"How can it afford this kind of policy??!!"

IMO, it can afford this kind of policy because a) the 'International Community' (for a lack of better term) allows them time & latitude. b) Ahmadinejad has to save face, at least, within the Islamic world, to be perceived as a hero who stands up to the only remaining Superpower i.e. the U.S.

Remember, the Mullahs in Iran do not think rationally (not by Western standards anyway). The Mullahs and their supporters are incapable of economic management or governing a country. They rule by fear and oppression. However, they are savvy political players and in politics reality doesn't really count, what does count is 'perception'.


12 posted on 08/24/2006 1:48:46 AM PDT by odds
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To: pppp

"but after France duped Israel and US into ceasefire by promising 'robust military force' to patrol the border.."

BTW, there is nothing "robust" about the French. The 40 odd variety of cheese can be wobbly and stinky. Actually, smelly/stinky is good but only for CHEESE. :-)


13 posted on 08/24/2006 2:01:25 AM PDT by odds
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To: pppp

Welcome to FR.

The way the Iranian regime has "bought" the Russians and Chinese is in the way of deals, mutual investments. So, not buying in the sense that Iran owns them.

Iran also knows that their trade partners, Russia & China, don't adhere to the rules of political correctness, and their much smaller country of Iran would be toast immediately, if they ever tried to pull anything militarily on China or Russia. Also, China & Russia have no problems disintegrating Iran even if they only feel threatened by Iran, and Iran knows that. They know there won't be a John Kerry or Al Gore running either of those countries anytime soon.

btw - your english is very good.


27 posted on 08/24/2006 4:32:12 AM PDT by nuconvert ([there's a lot of bad people in the pistachio business])
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To: pppp
Iranian couldn't buy Russia's and China's votes for a simple reason they can't afford it. [It's like saying that Argentina or Indonesia bought US vote]. I my judgment the picture if Iran as o loose cannon is seriously flawed.

China has been signing long term oil contracts with Iran. As the world's demand for oil continues to increase in China and India, the cushion between supply and demand has narrowed. Countries will be competing to get a reliable source of oil. China has been selling arms to Iran. Russia has been selling nuclear technology to Iran along with military equipment. It has been building the nuclear reactors. The bottom line is that Iran can and has influenced the Russian and Chinese votes on the UNSC. Iraq did something similarly with the Russian and French votes. Remember the Oil for Food program?

1. Significant finances go to Iraq. Don't kid yourself filling the void created by removal of Sadam [the void that US refuse to fill because it is afflicted with political-correctness-madness syndrome - a lethal infectious disease transmitted by left-leaning intellectual elites] was pretty expensive, Especially in the face of long-lasting Arab-Persian distrust, and the memory of the bloody Iraq-Iran war.

Iran can afford it. The increase in oil revenues doesn't hurt either. As long as wealth is concentrated in the hands of the corrupt mullahs, they can spend the money any way they want. The Iranian economy is in poor shape, but the Iranian regime is able to mute domestic opposition and pressure unlike what would happen in democracies. The Soviet Union was really a third world country, but the leadership used its scarce resources to build up a world class military machine while the rest of the country suffered.

2. Hezbollah is also quite expensive pet. The toys used against Israel were very costly and you have to remember that a lot of money was spent to buy the support of Shiite population of south Lebanon [hospitals, schools, TV station, pensions for poor and family of martyrs - it's like financing a state without tax revenue]

Mere peanuts for the Iranians. Iran produces about 4 million bbls of oil a day and sells most of it. That works out to daily revenues of over $250 million a day.

3. Expensive nuclear program. There is a good reason why authoritarian governments in poor countries don't indulge themselves in this way.

Iran is not a poor country. It has the world's 35th largest economy [22nd in terms of PPP]. The corrupt and repressive leadership can establish its own priorties and fund them accordingly.

6. Internal situation. Young urban dwellers are getting restive. They won't put up with deteriorating quality of life. Some money have to be spend on them.

There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is not popular or supported by the majority of the populace. However, as Stalin, Castro, etc. have proven, you can in a police state control the opposition.

If we take into account that Iranian economy is in a shambles [an oil rich country that have to import gasoline!!], we have to wonder how to the hell it can afford this kind of policy???!!

You are viewing the situation through a Western prism. The Iranian regime can do what it wants, including setting priorities on how it spends its money. Iran is not running a deficit economy like we are. In fact, they hold surpluses.

31 posted on 08/24/2006 5:59:02 AM PDT by kabar
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To: pppp
"An oil rich country that has to import its gasoline."
If that was all they had to worry about then the world would really be in trouble, they import one third of there drinking water, food products about 20%,health products 80% (a drug store in Iran is full of American drugs) urban health does not exist, Tehran has 12 million people without garbage collection, go to a restaurant and vomit, tour the country and wonder why they have not rebuilt after the war, then you realize that there has not been a war, children eating out of garbage on the streets of Tehran corruption on a scale that has never before existed on this earth,I have been there many times and this is not even a little of what is happening in that country.
70 posted on 08/31/2006 11:37:48 AM PDT by jerryem (A Raghead is something on the end of a Dipstick.)
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