Allens numbers stayed the same with Republicans, 90% of their vote each time. He lost a few points with the Indies and a few with dems. The major factor however is the sample. 5% more dems this time and 5% less pubbies. Considering there aren't many crossovers the difference in the polling margins is directly attributable to the sample I would think.
Here are the internals for 6/25 and here are the internals for 8/20.
You may find my previous post of some interest.
Good stuff, thanks
Great post.
There also aren't very many independents in Virginia politics. However, the recent selection of Democrats for Governor suggests the fascists are recovering from the body blow the Republicans gave them back in the 70s and 80s.
True, but remember that party identification in election polling tends to be a rather fluid thing. For some reason, a certain small segment of the sample for whatever reason changes its identification as the race goes in one direction or another, favoring the party of the candidate who has gained ground. This was seen frequently in the 2004 election as I recall. Still, note that Webb has gained 17 points among Independents.
Indeed, I would be very suspicious if this was the only recent poll on this race. But there's also the Rasmussen poll from a couple days ago, which shows Allen only up 5.
Looks like the pollster wanted to show a slip in polls for Allen and attribute it to Allen's failed attempt at humor.