Even if I except the 13% (not all of which are even Republicans) 90% of that 13% will vote for anyone rather than Hillary. Almost all of those here willing to support Guiliani would fit in your 13%.
Dear justshutupandtakeit,
"Almost all of those here willing to support Guiliani would fit in your 13%."
No, this 13% is the hardcore that just won't vote for a pro-abort. At all. I don't think that a majority of folks at Free Republic are hardcore pro-life, in that they will not vote for a pro-abort for president.
These are not folks merely with socially conservative views, among others. They are the hardcore social conservatives who will not vote for a pro-abort.
In 2004, this crowd went pretty much exclusively for President Bush, who received a little less than 51% of the vote.
Assuming that in 2008, a Republican can get 51% again. Take away that 13% hardcore, won't vote for a pro-abort group, and the Republican is pretty much down to 38%. Take away just HALF that 13%, and the Republican candidate is under 45%.
In that the liberal half of the electorate is NOT in favor of an extreme hawkish prosecution of the war on terror, the Republican candidate isn't going to pick up much support from the liberal side of the electorate.
If nominated, Mr. Giuliani will struggle to exceed 45% of the vote.
By the way, if you want to see how FReepers view the nomination contest, perhaps this poll might be revealing:
"Free Republic Opinion Poll: If the 2008 Republican primary for president were held today and the following candidates were listed on your ballot, which one would you choose?
"Composite Opinion
Tom Tancredo 26.7% 1,645
George Allen 19.1% 1,176
Newt Gingrich 17.6% 1,086
Rudy Giuliani 13.3% 818
Jeb Bush 9.3% 573
Sit it out 4.0% 244
Mitt Romney 3.5% 217
Mike Pence 2.9% 179
John McCain 2.7% 167
Bill Frist 0.9% 53"
It seems that Mr. Giuliani could only manage fourth place among folks here at FR.
sitetest