To make a counter against the optomistic tone of the article, while Hezbollah was wounded and did suffer losses, those losses are replaceable. Men and material can be replaced, esp in the light of Hezbollah's newfound "glory" in the Arab world.
As for the buffer zone. The author is assuming that the Lebanes Army and the U.N. will execute resolution 1701 flawlessly. Since whne has the U.N. even pulled of what they say they are actually gonna do? Do you really link that the U.N. is gonna put 15,000 troops into the area? Do you really think that they are gonna lift a finger to stop Hezbollah from rebuilding in the south?
The author makes great pains in the early part of the article to describe how Hezbollah fighters can blend in with civilians yet ignores this in the assumption that the U.N. will actually do anything in the south. How is the U.N. gonna stop these "civilians" from moving back south to their homes?
Israel publically stated three aims in this conflict:
1) the return, without condition, of its soldiers.
2) the disarming of Hezbollah
3) South Lebanon in control of the Lebanese Army/a robust international force.
Israel failed on ponts one and two and item three is shakey at best with it's fate in the hands of the French and Kofi Annan.
Yeah, some victory.
In regards to the two soldiers, Israel has captured at least 15 Hizballah fighters including some High Assets people as Israel Foreign minister mentioned two days ago. So Israel will have the upper hand when negotiating on getting the prisoners.
Even worse, there will be 15,000 "Lebanese" soldiers stationed there, ostensibly armed and in the open. The Hezzies won't just blend in with the civilians, but also with the "Lebanese" army, armed to the teeth and in the open. A "legitimate" Lebanese military will of course get the support of UNIFIL for having defensive weapons protecting their southern border. Look for the new Iranian dual-purpose ground-to-air / ground-to-ground missile launcher, coming to a Lebanese neighborhood real soon. And the UN won't do a dammed thing about it.
To your point, as empirical evidence, look at what happened in Srebrenica, when the U.N. was in charge. They allowed a huge massacre to take place, and did nothing to stop it.