Posted on 08/10/2006 5:02:49 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
Thursday, August 10, 2006
Indian mag predicts war along LoC
* Army considering punitive raids in AJK to counter ‘attack by infiltration’ strategy
By Iftikhar Gilani
NEW DELHI: Forget back channel diplomacy, if the Indian army has its way it will unleash a new “war doctrine” to combat what it describes as Islamabad’s new strategy of “attack by infiltration” into Indian territory beyond Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).
According to this month’s issue of Force magazine, the army may attempt to persuade New Delhi to follow the Israeli example in Lebanon and authorise the attack of “terrorist” targets in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. This could include punitive raids against Pakistani posts along the Line of Control (LoC), cross-border pursuit of militants and the crushing of militant training camps.
Indeed, the magazine points out that “it is not difficult for the army to attack a nearby Pakistani post on the LoC and bring back their dead to show intruders into Indian territory”, noting that “both sides have attempted this in the past”.
Force also stresses that India is “well-prepared to meet Pakistan’s war threat (in retaliation) head-on”, going on to suggest that New Delhi would simply need to allow its military a timeframe of three to four weeks to accomplish its aims before bowing to international pressure for a ceasefire.
Thus it warns that the next three months - that is, before winter sets in and the passes in Jammu and Kashmir close for the season - could prove crucial for India’s relations with Pakistan.
The magazine also says that the armed forces have taken into account Pakistan’s military weaknesses to ensure the success of their war doctrine.
“Should Pakistan decide to enlarge the war theatre to ease pressure on the J&K front, the Indian military will seek to destroy its offensive forces, as well as capture territory inside the Thar desert to be used as a bargaining chip in the aftermath of war,” the magazine says in its unsigned cover story, ‘Peace by Other Means’.
Moreover, Force points out that President Musharraf understands this. Thus his offer to help India nab those responsible for last month’s Mumbai train blasts came with a warning to New Delhi to refrain from any hot pursuit across the LoC. In short, “he (Musharraf) is threatening action against likely raids by the Indian Army inside PoK”.
The magazine notes that “New Delhi should understand its military strength too”. Army forces stationed in J&K say that following India’s fencing of the LoC and its employment of surveillance equipment in the area – cross-border infiltration has taken on a new guise.
According to Lt Gen Deepak Kapoor, the army commander of Northern Commands, “infiltration into J&K is unstoppable as the LoC is no longer the sole route of entering the state as terrorists infiltrate from all available routes and their area of interest is no longer confined to J&K”.
Given that terrorism is now spilling into India’s heartland, the magazine says that New Delhi may choose to look beyond diplomatic and intelligence-based solutions to dismantle the ever-expanding tentacles of terrorism.
Enter the Indian army, which has stressed that military action be seriously considered if all other options fail. It has pointed out that the country’s armed forces have come a long way since the end of Operation Parakram in 2002, stressing that air, naval and military forces now have “the capability, will and a war winning strategy against Pakistan”.
According to Force, the army would use Special Forces deployments, assisted by the Air Force, to win any battle with Pakistan. The magazine also identifies the significant areas of Pakistan’s military weakness that would aid Indian forces in defeating any attempt by Islamabad to expand its war theatre:
* The Pakistan Air Force’s capacity to conduct daily sorties is calculated at 260 per day, compared to the Indian Air Force’s potential of 450;
* Pakistan’s 11 and 12 Corps (reserves for the Indian theatre) are completely tied down in other ongoing military activities, such as the US-led Operation Mountain Thrust in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Thus most of these forces would be unavailable for any short war with India;
* Pakistan is already facing internal dissension in Balochistan;
* In operational terms, there are innumerable choke points in the Pakistan army’s lines of communications, rendering them vulnerable to interdiction;
* Karachi port remains vulnerable.
Thus the race is on in the next three months to determine what the choice will be for India and Pakistan: war or peace?
Ping Pong!!!!
I have friends in Amritsar. Please be cautious when poking sticks at the Pak hornet's nest out of boredom, as they will most likely be one of the first stung.
This would quickly get out of hand...
As if things were ever in hand.....
Point taken.
Barking dogs seldom bite. I think this news piece is more strategic than informative. It is to pressure the US and NATO with a war on Pakistan's eastern front that will deter their anti-Taliban operations if the US:
1) Goes ahad and sells F-16s to Pakistan
2) Doesn't push Pakistan to handover the terrorists we want (especially since the Americans admitted that there are many still terrorists in Pakistan walking freely)
The prospects of America fuelling a war at a much larger scale by selling weapons to Pakistan should hopefully bog down the motion in the US houses to sell F-16s to Pakistan. This coupled with the prospects that China can get its hands on the F-16s that Pakistan gets will increase doubts in the minds of most American politicians.
India and Pakistan are in no danger of going to war at the moment. This is sensationalist journalism.
The two nations could only, if it ever comes to it again, fight a token war or a nuclear war. Neither could conquer the other, nor could they successfully occupy it.
They could kill a bunch of people, but there's hardly a shortage in either country.
I don't see why India can't occupy PAkistan. There are parts of Sindh especially which would very much prefer Indian occupation as they are sore of having controlled by Punjabis (most of the military and political establishment in Pakistan are Punjabi muslims). Any future war will definitely see India reoccupying all of Kashmir and other strategic areas so as to deter any chance of future Pakistani infiltration. It will mean that we will push Pakistan back to the plains.
India could occupy parts of Pakistan, but there are simply far too many Pakistani civilians who would actively resist a full-scale occupation.
India could probably defeat the Pakistani armed forces (although one wonders at what cost given the nuclear capability of both countries), but they couldn't really occupy and subdue the civilian population which is heavily armed.
Hell, Pakistan hasn't even conquered its western provinces.
I don't think we wanted to occupy any part of Pakistan in the past. This hasn't changed much in the present. We are quite glad to rid ourselves of a whole bunch of stupid Islamofascists and besides after having seen the West Germans complain about the down-turn in their economy post-reunification, I really hope no one in India wants to reunify with Pakistan. It will be a fiscal black-hole. The areas I would like to see India occupy are specifically strategic regions to prevent infiltration of terrorists into India, this would include PoK and mountainous terrains of the Northern parts of Pakistan. This will also serve to cut-off Pakistan from China via land. I believe this is of utmost importance and MUST be done in the event of a future war.
Another good idea might be to completely occupy coastal Pakistan to cut off sea access, as well as to gain access to the Persian gulf ourselves. This will enable India to become a key security player in the Middle East and secure western interests in the region against any adventurism by Iran. I think that America should let this happen to increase the stakes for India against a nuclear middle-east. A nuclear Iran will not be a good neighbour for India. Also Iran will better behave itself if the US uses Indian influence on Iran to push Iran's leadership to behave.
For this we have to wait for a US administration that sees Pakistan for what it really is, a double-faced, treacherous "ally" in the GWOT. Irrespective, it is absolutely vital for the world that Pakistan be completely disarmed. I mean absolutely no guns, no weapons nothing of any kind either with the military or with civilians. A modern-day version of post-war Japan. Just pistols for policing and nothing more.
Pakistan has not "conquered" it's Western frontiers not because of it's inability,but it simply has ignored the area & just used it's strategic value.
PS-did you know that if the most popular leaders in the NWFP,Khan abdul Gaffar KHan & Khan Sahib,didn't boycott the British held referndum in 1946
.........the NWFP would have opted for union with India & not Pakistan.
I've learned a lot about Pak/Indian relations and history here at FR, but not nearly enough to feel confident that I understand it.
I pay attention to these threads, because they're both involved in the WOT and both are nuclear powers.
But I probably weigh in more than I should, because I'm looking at it from a "today" perspective, not one with an in-depth grasp of the real history of the region.
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