I am comfortable quoting from a few posts on a very popular real estate blog. (Ben Jones was just interviewed by Newsweek). Note that these people are saying the same things that I have said. But, they have actually visited the Pacific Northwest.
Just got back from vacation the last week of July. Went to Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver (Canada).I noted a few things:
1) Portland downtown is filled with highrise luxury condo complexes. You can’t take the free streetcar (love that!) more than 1 block without seeing another new highrise. Thing is: Portlanders don’t make that much money. Who is going to live in these $750k condos?
2) Seattle also has condos everywhere. There are lots of luxury towers from the Space Needle all down towards downtown, and then zillions of smaller condo complexes (3-6 stories high) especially throughout Capital Hill and First Hill. For any of you Seattlites wondering if you could have a bubble, I’ll tell you. YES.
3) Then on to Vancouver. The blogger from Vancouver has said this here before, but now I’m inclined to believe. Vancouver may be the biggest bubble market out there. Maybe even more than Phoenix and Las Vegas (yes I know it’s hard to believe). Vancouver downtown is almost all condo towers (I believe it holds the distinction of the only downtown in the world that’s over 70% residential). We saw more cranes in Vancouver than I’ve ever seen. I stood in southeast downtown Vancouver (near Granville Island and the science museum) and looked around and saw 12 cranes. 12!!!!!! I took a picture that had 8 cranes within just a few blocks of me, maybe like 5 blocks or so…. but the pic didn’t turn out. :(
If I recall correctly, Vancouver has about the same population as Portland… but Vancouver’s downtown is at least 10 times bigger. And it’s 5x bigger than Seattle’s. crazy.
But overbuilding wasn’t restrcted to the cities either. (except canada which has different zoning laws). we saw amazing overbuilding in Olympia, Tacoma, and even Vancouver WA. Are they kidding?
The Pacific NW is one of the most overbuilt (silently) areas of the country. Sorry guys.
Clouseau
I’m from Portland originally, and my parents still live there. Downtown has indeed gone condo crazy, but the real fun is out in the burbs. The condo bust started way early out there, like several years ago, from what I recall. They built a light-rail system out to Beaverton and the western suburbs and did zoning stuff so that a whole bunch of condos got built around the light-rail stops. “Smart growth” and all that. Well guess what? No one wanted these crappy little suburban condos, and many of the projects languished, even as SFHs went crazy in the same suburbs. You are dead on about Portlanders not making all that much money, either. There are a lot of California equity refugees, and a few decent large employers there, but nothing that provides huge wealth. One of the saddest parts is that downtown Portland used to be kinda funky and cool–a bit weird and ‘off’ in an artsy way–and all of the overpriced condos and cookie-cutter yuppie businesses that followed made downtown really tacky, plastic, and just plain uninteresting.
I think you have to admit that the "track record" of the experts (predicting gains) is much better than your track record (predicting losses).
Why should anyone believe that, after soooo many failed "prophecies", you are "right" this time?
Why don't you read: "The Boy Who Cried Wolf", Aesop