Hoist by your own petard. Read the chart, using 1973-trade weighted dollars, the peak is reached in 2002 at just under 120. At the end of the chart in 2005 it is just about 85. A decline of almost a third. This is what you keep running away from. This is the correlation.
This is undeniable. And it is ongoing, continuing, and unabated. Get it? Your preposterous "no correlation" is killing the dollar. Sucker.
[The state interventions in currency of the Chinese, the Japanese, the Pacific Rim, etc "pegging" or ...worse. ]
So interventions can break the "relationship" between the deficit and the dollar? Thanks for admitting your error.
It wasn't my error, but yours. Of course, you'll never admit that, LOL!
If there was a relationship, the dollar would constantly weaken, every year, not just half of the time.
Wrong. Multivariants in the composite relationship don't negate the significance of the core "supply-demand" fundamentals.
You're a source of humor. An object of ridicule.
Projecting again, Todd?
Tell me again how the Fed sets the interest rate on Treasury Bills. That was funny.
Why don't you ask Ben Bernanke or Alan Greenspan? Of course that doesn't sit well with you, does it? You need to go back to school, let's send you to Investment U:
Treasury Rates Set to Rise As Foreigners Stop Buying Our DebtNew York, NY October 3, 2005 /PRNewswire – Foreign governments have been bailing out the U.S. for several years now, buying up 70% or more of our federal debt. At one point, they were financing our ballooning deficit to the tune of $4 billion a day.
Selling our debt to overseas banks, however, is getting harder… all too quickly, says Dr. Mark Skousen, an economist and advisor for http://www.InvestmentU.com.
Debt purchases have started to decline precipitously, from a peak quarterly rate of more than $400 billion in early 2004, to just $100 billion in the most recent quarter. At the same time, the federal deficit is expected to reach more than $500 billion in fiscal 2005. More debt, fewer buyers… a double whammy. Check this out:
http://www.investmentu.com/aboutiu/WorldFinancialSeminars/Images/Treasury.gif
Already, central banks from China to Argentina are quietly shifting to non-paper assets, specifically gold and precious metals, to diversify their portfolio.
_______________________________________________________
* Dr. Mark Skousen is an economist who has taught finance and economics at Columbia Business School, Barnard College at Columbia University, and Rollins College in Winter Park, FL. He is editor in chief of Forecasts & Strategies – an award-winning investment newsletter – and three trading services. He recently was nominated as the Chairman of Investment U, a free educational financial e-letter with more than 275,000 subscribers. For more information about our editors, or to set up an interview, please contact Juan Muñoz at 410.223.2693 or jmunoz@oxfordclub.com, or visit http://www.investmentu.com.
When the dollar started its major decline in 2002 it was blunted by the ongoing purchases of the foreign governments of US Treasuries and so forth, but this began to wane after two years of "buying into the teeth" of the dollar decline.