Posted on 08/08/2006 10:21:03 AM PDT by blam
Experts predict more Chinese bird flu cases
James Sturcke
Tuesday August 8, 2006
Guardian Unlimited (UK)
China's admission today that bird flu killed a soldier in 2003 - two years earlier than previously acknowledged - is unlikely to surprise scientists studying the emergence of the virus in Asia. Many have questioned why China, where so many people live in close proximity to wildfowl, has recorded only 19 cases of the disease, 12 of which have proved fatal.
Last October, as British attention turned to the spread of H5N1 cases to European countries, scientists travelled to Asia - at least in part to urge more openness on bird flu from the Chinese authorities.
Article continues
"We would like to know precisely how the Chinese are responding to such a widespread infection of their chickens, how they are looking at their birds, how they are looking at their human beings for having potentially been infected," Sir John Skehel, the director of the National Institute of Medical Research at the Medical Research Council, said at the time. "That information is not available at the moment."
Today, Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College, London, who has been modelling the predicted spread of bird flu for the British government, said it was possible that more cases would come to light.
"It would have been a surprise had there not been more cases from China, because it is in the epicentre of the bird flu outbreak," he said. "I am certainly not surprised about this one."
Prof Ferguson said it was difficult to judge whether the Chinese authorities had deliberately tried to cover up bird flu outbreaks or whether the delay in identifying the disease had been due to poor surveillance and communication systems.
"I think a lot has happened since the severe acute respiratory. . .
(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...
Well, it is hurricane season after all.
BBC
Two Indonesian teenagers have died of the bird flu virus, bringing the country's number of human fatalities to 44, Indonesian health officials say. The test results, if confirmed, would give Indonesia the world's highest human toll from the virus.
Local tests showed a 16-year-old boy died of the disease on Monday night and tests were also positive for a girl who died on Tuesday, officials said.
Indonesia has registered more bird flu deaths this year than any other nation.
Vietnam has also been badly affected, suffering 42 deaths, but the outbreak there seems to be under control.
No one has died from the disease in Vietnam since the beginning of 2006.
Teenagers
Indonesia has recently changed the way it confirms human bird flu deaths with the World Health Organisation.
In the past, samples were tested at a WHO-affiliated laboratory before official confirmation was given.
But now, if two national laboratories confirm the presence of the virus, it is officially classified as a bird flu death and the WHO is informed.
The presence of H5N1 in the two most recent patients has currently been confirmed by one laboratory.
The 16-year-old boy had been in contact with sick poultry
Officials said the 16-year-old girl was admitted to hospital on 4 August in Tangerang, west of Jakarta, but died before she could be transferred to the capital.
The teenage boy came from Bekasi on the outskirts of Jakarta.
He was admitted to the city's designated bird flu centre, Sulianti Suroso hospital, on Saturday, and his condition rapidly deteriorated.
Health officials said he had been in contact with sick chickens before he contracted the disease.
Criticised
Transmission from poultry is the main cause of human bird flu, but there is a fear that the virus could mutate to a form which could be easily passed from human to human, triggering a pandemic and potentially putting millions of lives at risk.
Indonesia's problems were highlighted in May when the country recorded a large cluster of deaths which the WHO believes were the result of human-to-human transmission.
But experts say this particular incident did not signal a major change in the spread of the disease. Indonesia has often been criticised for its reluctance to cull large numbers of fowl - a method that has proved effective in other nations.
But the disease is endemic in poultry across most of the country, and the government says it is simply not practical to initiate such a widespread cull.
It also says it does not have enough money to compensate farmers, and has asked for $900m (£495m) over the next three years to tackle the virus.
Globally, more than 130 people have died of bird flu since late 2003. Most of the deaths have been in East Asia, but the virus has also spread to Europe, Africa and South and Central Asia.
Yup. The last report I saw said that the BF should arrive here (US) in birds next month.
"Globally, more than 130 people have died of bird flu since late 2003. Most of the deaths have been in East Asia, but the virus has also spread to Europe, Africa and South and Central Asia."
This is the story that isn't...if east asia can handle it, we certainly can.
Ping to the little list.
Ping...
Thanks Little Jeremiah.
Gee! I wish I was an expert bird flu predictor. Guess I'll have to be satisfied with my degree in sock inspecting.
This is a carbon copy of the attempt to induce a panic over SARS. Exactly ZERO Americans died from SARS, despite the fear mongering.
Yeah, the disease could mutate, but in 3 years, it hasn't. The media seems to desperately want an epidemic, or pandemic, and they keep reminding us that it COULD or MIGHT happen...
That factor alone is significant.
8 August 2006
The Ministry of Health in Indonesia has confirmed the countrys 55th case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus.
The case occurred a 16-year-old male from West Java Province. He developed symptoms on 26 July, was hospitalized on 4 August, and died on 7 August.
Prior to symptom onset, the case had contact with sick and dying chickens in his household. A joint investigation by health and agricultural officials detected the H5 virus subtype in chickens from the household. Family members and close contacts have been placed under surveillance.
Of the 55 cases confirmed to date in Indonesia, 43 have been fatal.
More By Panarat Thepgumpanat
BANGKOK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - A 27-year-old Thai man has died of bird flu, the country's second death this year, officials said on Saturday, as they put eight more provinces, including the Bangkok area, on a bird flu watchlist.
The man died on Thursday after the H5N1 virus killed chickens on his backyard farm in the province of Uthai Thani, 220 km (135 miles) north of Bangkok, the third province to suffer an outbreak since the virus re-emerged in July after an eight-month lull.
"He buried them without any protection and that's why he caught bird flu," Thawat Suntrajarn, chief of the Department of Disease Control, said of Thailand's 16th victim since the disease swept through parts of Asia in late 2003.
The World Health Organization, which says bird flu killed at least 134 people worldwide before the latest Thai death, urged previously hard-hit countries to be vigilant.
"Even in a country as well prepared as Thailand, it can come back and you can never rest easy," said Chadin Tephaval, a spokesman for the WHO in Thailand.
In Uthai Thani, 116 chickens and fighting cocks were culled to prevent the virus spreading from the dead man's farm.
His wife was not sick, but was being monitored after she cooked and ate some of the dead birds, Thawat said.
Since the death of a Thai teenager in late July, Thailand has rushed to plug gaps in its bird flu defences.
The area around the sprawling Thai capital was among eight provinces declared bird flu risk zones on Saturday, increasing the total to 29 of Thailand's 76 provinces.
"The ministry will step up proactive measures and campaigns to fight the virus," Agriculture Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan said in announcing the expanded watchlist.
She said local officials would go on a door-to-door campaign to educate villagers on how to handle sick or dead poultry.
A new call centre would take reports of suspicious poultry deaths and answer questions about the disease.
WARNINGS IGNORED
The fact that people were still handling dead chickens with their bare hands showed the government's safety message was not getting through, officials say.
"We have been using billboards, radio spots and television to tell people to protect themselves from the disease, but some are still complacent or ignore the warnings," Thawat said on Friday.
The government has threatened fines of up to 4,000 baht (about $100) or two months in jail for failing to report sick or dead birds.
The crackdown came after villagers in the province of Pichit, where the teenager died last month, were found to be hiding sick birds for fear their remaining flocks would be culled.
The outbreaks in Thailand and neighbouring Laos, where bird flu was found on a farm near the capital Vientiane last month, renewed fears the disease is flaring up again in Asia.
In Vietnam, where there have been no confirmed cases among poultry or humans this year, authorities are taking no chances.
Animal health workers slaughtered 53 wild storks at a theme park in Ho Chi Minh City on Saturday after random tests showed H5, part of the H5N1 virus, in two birds.
In Indonesia, tests confirmed six suspected human cases were not bird flu, an official said.
News of the suspected cases in Northern Sumatra province had raised concern of possible "cluster" outbreaks where several members of one family have the virus and of possible mutations making human-to-human transmission easier.
Indonesia's health ministry said on Thursday that preliminary tests showed the illnesses were not bird flu after all, and on Saturday Runizar Ruesin, head of the health ministry bird flu centre, told Reuters that further tests on the six confirmed "all of them negative" for the disease. Indonesia and Vietnam have each had 42 deaths, the highest number of confirmed human deaths of any countries in the world. (Additional reporting by Orathai Sriring in BANGKOK, Ho Binh Minh in HANOI, Jerry Norton in JAKARTA)
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