It now seems likely that Lieberman is going down to defeat in the primary and it is the unanimous opinion of the pundits on The McCloughlin Group that he will lose the general election should he run as an independent. To the Republicans on the group, it signifies a self-destructive tendency in the Democrat party to return to the disastrous days of the McGovern antiwar platform.
There is however another less optimistic view to take of this development and that is, although this is a closed primary in which only registered Democrats can vote, Lieberman's troubles demonstrate the deep intensity of feelings against the war and against Bush which are so prevalent in that party. This intensity will undoubtedly carry over into the general election across the country. That is a substantial risk. An even greater risk might be a similar intensity of anti-Bush, antiwar feeling among independents. It would be interesting to see data on this. Finally, there is no evidence that the mirror image of this great intensity of feeling which motivates the Democrat party is shared within Republican ranks.
The Democrats are intense, we don't know if the independents are similarly energized, and my guess is that the Republicans might sit this one out. This could be a recipe for as a tsunami. If this combination of factors is more likely than a reaction against the McGovern-like stance of the Democrat party, we could easily lose the House and maybe even the Senate.
Many months ago I posted my belief that the Republicans had very little time to repair the damage that they were visiting upon themselves as they sleepwalked toward this election. First, they should have pushed hard for oil drilling in Alaska and in offshore waters while making the case that it is the Democrats who, with their opposition to Anwar drilling, offshore drilling, refineries, and nuclear power, have driven gas prices to over three dollars a gallon. They should have gone on offense even if these measures were defeated, the party would have gained and the Democrats might be blamed. Second, the Republicans should have gotten hold of the budgeting and appropriations process and began to cut. Bush should have vetoed. As it is now, the party of fiscal conservatism as revealed itself to be phony and the Democrats have succeeded in blaming Bush and the Republicans for three dollar oil.
Immigration reform has been bungled from beginning to end. First, Bush has failed to enforce the laws that exist and permitted this crisis to grow like a fungus. Second, the Senate has tried to deceive the American people with a reform measure that is really a transparent amnesty and Republican fingerprints are all over it. The single bright spot in this whole mess is a staunch resistance of the House Republicans. If we lose the house, amnesty will be inevitable and our entire way of life will be engulfed.
It is too late now to do very much, the Republicans have shut down the Congress and gone home to campaign on a record which is pathetic. Small wonder their natural constituents are likely to stay home on election day.
