Posted on 08/04/2006 12:58:13 PM PDT by StJacques
SAJ, let us visit this Obrador market at Intrade once more. the fact is Obrador was a heavy Favorite on July 1rst, and then Calderon wins. Does it matter if it was 70 or 60%, the fact is Tradesports is a hack site.
Here's at least SOME progress:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4096591.html
You'll note I said 'former' bookmaker. That's how I put myself through college many years ago. Nor did I ever use the term 'expert', merely 'professional' -- as in how one makes ones living. Do try to read what has actually been written, rather that what you might prefer to have been written.
As to being 'distinguished', at least bookmakers are honest about what they do (and, btw, it's only in America that 'bookmaker' is a perjorative, not elsewhere); insurance companies, those oh-so-distinguished institutions, are and always have been bookmakers by precise definition.
As to tradesports, I've dealt with them for years with never the tiniest hint of a problem.
Ta-ta.
Hmmmm.... I just spoke with an attorney friend in Mexico City, and the info I reported to her, combined with her analysis, suggests that maybe this won't be a vote-by-vote recount even in contested districts. After all, judges and magistrates will be doing the counting. Maybe they'll be recounting the mere vote TALLIES? We'll see clarifications in the news soon enough. That attorney is pretty sure AMLO will lose this either way though.
A "scrutiny" will take place with results from 9% of the voting centers, with the official results announced on Monday, August 14th. Apparently the results from the others will be left standing as is, despite the PRD's pleas:
http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/366854.html
What's still not too clear to me is whether this scrutiny entails a vote-by-vote recount or just a..."scrutiny". I imagine it's the former, BUT reportedly only judges and magistrates can do it. Presumably they can use staff though. I mean how can they manually recount all those votes (maybe 9% of the millions and millions cast). The articles aren't honing in on this fine point yet, but admittedly the news is only minutes old.
ObraGore's antics are getting old too.
Thanks for your input... Hopefully many happy trading days remain for us =)
SAJ:
I'd be interested to see how the bets on that Irish wagering site are regarding ObraGore's prospects now. Hopefully they haven't improved? I looked at the link from your interesting chart and there doesn't APPEAR to be much change except a slight boost for the already favored Calderon.
Interestingly enough, this Houston Chronicle article says that around 4 million votes are subject to the recount and that they're basically in PAN strongholds:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4097247.html
The article also says the PRD's ObraGore's prospects are considered bleak.
It's disconcerting to see the PRD official saying that their "peaceful" civil resistance will involve their making others spill their blood, the blood of the oppressed, Gandhi-style. Some lunkheads down there have nothing better to do than to jump to their death in front of metro trains and let the PRD claim it was in protest.
The MexElex page on tradesports is right here, no signup, no costs, check it out whenever you like.
Thanks for the commentary!
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