Posted on 08/02/2006 9:37:48 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
IDF photo of Israeli troops heading over border for tonight's patrol
News
CNN: Rights group disputes Qana death toll
U.N.'s Malloch Brown Questions Hezbollah's 'Terror' Designation
UN Delays Talks on Multinational Force to Lebanon
Iran Seeks More Arms for Hezbollah
Israeli soldier from Queens injured in attacks
200 missiles hit Israel as battle rages in Lebanon
Khamenei calls for Muslim resistance against US, Israel
VIDEO
3 minute video of Balbaak raid (.wmv format)
With the upswing in tempo of IDF ground operations, Iran and Syria face a decision making point, whether to become actively involved, militarily, creating a regional war.
Although, Iranian President Ahmadinejad's comments are interpreted in the headlines as calling for the destruction of Israel, the actual quotes presented indicate he actually said that while the destruction of Israel is the only way to achieve lasting peace, he currently calls for an immediate cease-fire.
Because this could be either simple posturing and threatening, or because it could have been a trial balloon to judge reaction to a possible Iranian escalation, I tend to assign this half a "datapoint" towards chances for a wider conflict.
The announcement of a new Bin Laden tape, arriving at roughly the same time, constitutes a full datapoint, as the alliance between Iran and Al Qaeda is well known.
Coincidence with the beginning of a larger IDF ground offensive, an easily predicted nexus in Axis decision making processes, contributes another half datapoint, bringing the total to two.
If or when the count reaches three, I intend to proceed as if a wider, regional conflict, is highly likely, even probable.
Additional datapoints that might be expected would be militarily threatening statements from Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia, similar statements from Iran and/or Syria, or any signs of an offensive military posture from Syrian or Iranian forces, border incursions, missile readiness operations, increased communications traffic, road marches of large units, etc.
Also, military flare-ups of any kind elsewhere in the Middle East, particularly Iraq, particularly sectarian attacks or attacks on US forces, also military skirmishing along the North Korean DMZ, would be troublesome, as would any "accidents" in the Persian Gulf, and terrorist activities with Al Qaeda's signature anywhere across the globe.
No need to panic at this time, but it would be advisable to remain alert for these types of developments.
Pressconference with Blair on CNN now.
Thank God for the internet and the pajamamujadeen (sp?). Otherwise, they would've gotten away with this crap.
What's he got to say?
Can you summarize? Strategic or tactical info only?
Push it back to the 600s. Give it a big kick in the pants when the European nations started colonizing the Middle East. Add a dash of black powder with the fall of the Ottoman Empire, and a handful of blasting caps supplied by the English as they manipulated the various Arab groups first during the war to fight against the Turks and then after the war with the divving up of the old turkish territories. Add to that the timer set through the French setting up the Lebanon the way they did.
And, perhaps, some might say, the British lighting of the fuse by the way they were involved the the way they handled the Palestinian protectorate and the carving out of Israel in a way that was somewhat set up to fail, but succeeded anyway....
Israel refusing to die is the detonator.
And so it goes.
Sayed Bin Laden is currently Al Qaeda's operational commander, since Bin Laden retired a few years back.
Sayed Bin Laden commands from between 200 to 600 Al Qaeda full bayat (pledged) members, from headquarters at Lavizan, Iran, in close cooperation with top political, intelligence, and Pasdaran figures high in the Iranian leadership.
Personally, I'd much prefer to see Sayed Bin Laden connducting tactical operations on the Israeli/Lebanese border, than almost anywhere else on earth, but this may be disinformation, allowing Al Qaeda's operational commander freedom to roam at will.
Nothing yet..The original forum post is a heads up for the jihadis. In the 'next few hours'....
Could it be that he was living in Iran for his own safety and they publicized it as a 'house arrest' to deflect charges of harboring international terrorists?
No. We have been dealing with this type of deception every night in the MSM.
The Western reporters who are there know full well what is going on. They are not victims of a hoax, they are active participants in it.
Syria has the most to lose, besides Hezbollah. Iran has the option to sit unscathed, while her pawns are decimated, if they choose to exercise it.
Militarily, I'm concentrating on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Iraq, and terrorism, with involvement of Turkey, Egypt Saudi Arabia, Jordan, etc. unlikely, but possible.
If this is all part of a pre-planned operation, I would expect initiation to take place simulateously, or as near to similatneously as possible.
If escalation occurs, at any one location, related to Iran, Syria, North Korea, Iraq, or to terrorist activities, I'd expect and plan for the others to follow suit very quickly.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
I think Syria knows it has a lot to lose, and isn't quite the puppet that Iran wishes it was.
DCPatriot wrote:
Iran has freed a son of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden from house arrest, a German
newspaper reported on Wednesday.
Could it be that he was living in Iran for his own safety and they publicized it as a 'house arrest' to deflect
charges of harboring international terrorists?
See post 149.
Collaboration between Al Qaeda and Iran, has been reported by reputable sources, as high as the Vice Presidential level, and the numbers one, two and/or three in Iranian Intelligence and the Pasdaran.
Transcript: Interview with Mark Malloch Brown
And have your blood pressure meds handy...
AdmSmith wrote:
Pressconference with Blair on CNN now.
Excerpts here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1676896/posts
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY:
IAF renews bombing in Beirut
IDF, Hezbollah waging fierce battles;
http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/746085.html
Seven Hamas gunmen and boy killed as IDF raids southern Gaza
http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/745775.html
Lebanese hospital: Number of casualties from Qana air strike is 28, not 52
By The Associated Press and Haaretz Service
http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/745828.html
Iranian President: Solution to Middle East crisis is to destroy Israel ............Associated Press
http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/746081.html
It's amazing that NOT ONE western MSM has broadcast those facts and simply report his being released from 'house arrest'.
The world is upside down.
same guy, better cosmetologist now. Amazing!
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