Israel At War
24-hour forecast
The situation continues to be very fluid. Expect increased rocket attacks by Hezbollah and the expansion of the ground offensive by IDF (when Olmert finally lets them go).
Godzilla Observation - Yesterday’s commando operation (see below) was amazing and classical Israeli chutzpah. However, the delay and limited extent of the IDF penetration into Lebanon is puzzling. Although Olmert is talking big, the undercurrent I am detecting is that he is still half-stepping and hamstringing the IDF’s ground operations. Some think he sees this as another political opportunity rather than the existence of Israel being at stake. Olmert linked Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank to the “success” of the Lebanese campaign, drawing fire from across the Israeli political spectrum, especially his own party. He also announced the destruction of 13 Israeli home in the W. Bank (Samaria). Not going well with the people.
Israel Air Assault
Lebanese army and security officials said early Wednesday that special IDF forces attempted to kidnap Sheikh Muhammad Yazbek, a member of Hizbullah’s High Council and one of 12 senior organization members, near Baalbek in the west Bekaa Valley. According to reports, the operation began with at least six rapid air strikes, after which IAF choppers attempted to land ground forces in the city’s western sector. Haaretz reports 3 to 5 “junior Hezbollah militants” were captured, and several more were killed during the raid. “Lebanese sources identified the men as Hussein Nasrallah, Hussein al-Burji and Ahmed al-Ghotah and described them as low ranking members of the group,” according to Haaretz, and “The captured Hussein Nasrallah has the same name as a Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah.”
IDF Ground Offensive
Israel has attacked Hezbollah guerrillas with up to 6,000 – 20,000 Israeli troops on four fronts in south Lebanon on Wednesday. Widely differing troop counts relate to more fog of war, IDF is not being specific for OPSEC purposes. The IDF said the ground forces crossed the border at four different points and were aiming to reach four miles into Lebanon by Thursday. Thousands more were gathering at staging areas on the Israeli side of the border, ready to join the battles. The offensive really hasn’t expanded any deeper or wider than yesterdays SITREP. Major points of the attack continue to be (from west to east):
1. Ayta ash Shab – Very fierce fighting in this area.
2. Marun Al Ras area. This is the area IDF pulled back to after its brief excursion into Bint Jubayl.
3. Hula/Markaba area. This may include the area around Mays al Jabal to the south.
4. Addasseh-At Tayyabah area. Lebanese sources say the Israelis captured a hilltop at al-Aweida overlooking several villages, including Kfar Kila and Adaiseh.
With the recent call-up of reserves, there are nearly 6 divisions available to IDF to push into Lebanon. Most recent reports indicate that IDF is reinforcing the above break through areas, possibly indicating preparation for further attacks. RUMINT indicates that IDF is planning on securing the UN buffer zone (yellowed area in map above) by Thursday. That would put it about 2/3s of the way to the Litani River.
Hezbollah Rockets
Hezbollah guerrillas fired around 200 to 300 rockets into Israel on Wednesday, its most intense one-day barrage of the conflict, killing one person and wounding more than a dozen, medics said. One rocket slammed into a house on a kibbutz near the city of Nahariya, close to the Lebanese border, killing a 52-year-old man as he was riding his bicycle. Another round struck the occupied West Bank, the furthest target Hezbollah rockets have reached from Lebanon since fighting began on July 12. Hezbollah said it was a Khaibar-1 rocket, which Israel claims is Iranian-made. Godzilla: by an large, the majority of the rockets appear to hit open areas at a higher percentage than the beginning of the conflict. Evidence of degradation of Hezbollah’s technical ability to direct the launches.